NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- The Pirates continued their annual offseason tradition of picking up a veteran soft-tossing left-hander Tuesday whenever they acquired Marco Gonzales from the Braves.
Following in the footsteps of Derek Holland, Tyler Anderson, José Quintana and Rich Hill, Gonzales gives the Pirates some much-needed rotation depth. The acquisition cost was low -- just a player to be named later or cash considerations -- and considering a good portion of his salary is going to be paid for by the Mariners and Braves, there's not a lot of risk involved. The Pirates need starting pitching. Well, here's a starting pitcher.
This was actually the second time Gonzales was traded this winter meetings, being part of a Mariner salary dump on Sunday. So make that two times in a week he was effectively dumped for some salary relief. That should a lot when analyzing a player, but he can provide innings, which the Pirates desperately need.
Have I mentioned the Pirates needed starting pitching yet?
Gonzales was limited to just 50 innings over 10 starts last year due to nerve issues in his elbow, though he had surgery to alleviate that in August. He recorded a 5.22 ERA, with a much lower FIP (4.28) and an expected ERA that was right in line with his final results (5.23). Before that injury-filled season, he was a reliable back-half of the rotation starter, posting a 3.94 ERA over 131 starts from 2018 to 2022. If he can retain that form, it's easy to see how he could benefit the team.
And as for any lefty starter the Pirates acquire, there are a couple perks that should instantly help. The notch in left field should keep some fly balls in play. Ke'Bryan Hayes is a Gold Glover at third base, and a lot of ground balls hit by right-handed hitters should be in his range. Gonzales has almost always outpitched his peripherals because the very pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park was his home. That could be the case again here.
While he could potentially retain that form from 2018 to 2022, he's not going to be able to just follow the same playbook some other Pirate reclamation projects have.
Quintana, for example, was able to bounce back by leaning on his changeup more, messing up the hitter's timing and controlling the at-bat. Gonzales has a good changeup, but he also threw it 30.2% of the time last year, compared to 36.9% fastballs. Among pitchers who had at least 50 plate appearances last year end with a changeup -- which is effectively a sample of pitchers that really lean on the pitch rather than just use it against the opposite hand or just a show-me pitch -- that was the eighth-highest changeup rate last year. They could potentially push the envelope a bit and mix in a few more, but his best tool is already being utilized plenty.
If there is a pitch that might be under-utilized, it might be the cutter. He upped his curveball usage a year ago (from 13.4% to 24.2%) and started throwing it a bit harder (76.6 mph average to 79.3 mph). The result was a pitch that was hit hard (92.3 mph average exit velocity) but was mostly hit on the ground. A .353 slugging percentage with a breaking pitch won't hurt you, but a .293 batting average with just a 13.5% whiff rate might. His sample size was smaller last year, and if it is a true ground ball pitch, then it's definitely worth exploring.
The cutter took a backseat for the curveball though, and it's not exactly hard to see why. Hitters had a .389 batting average and .667 slugging percentage against it last year while the spin rate dropped over 100 RPM compared to 2021. What's worse is a lot of that spin last year was lower quality spin. In 2021, his active spin percentage -- or the amount of spin that ties into pitch movement -- was 74%, ranking in the top 10 of all pitchers. Last year, it was 58%, which was pretty pedestrian.
So he spun the ball less and the spin was less effective. That's going to lead to a much flatter pitch. In 2021, he got 13.1 inches of movement on his cutter. In 2023, it was just 9.2 inches.
He leaned on that cutter nearly 20% of the time in that 2018 to 2022 stretch, and it dropped to just 8.8% last season. It seems safe to assume the results were a big reason why he backed away from it. I don't know how much of that could be tied to his injury troubles or if the small sample size perhaps skewed some data, but if he can rectify that and get a second breaking pitch back, then he has a bit of a pitch mix.
We can't pretend that an 89 mph fastball is going to set the league on fire, but the changeup had a 29.5% whiff rate last year. The curveball was a good ground ball pitch. The cutter used to maximize its spin and get more movement. There are bits here that can be pieced together into a good major-league starter. After all, we saw how breaking ball focused the Pirates were last year, and this pitch mix screams the type of guy they have found success with of late:
The best case scenario with the Gonzales is he doesn't get diminishing returns with his high changeup rate, the breaking stuff gets a bit sharper and he eats good innings in a rotation that could really use a hand. The worst case scenario is they have someone to help them bridge the gap to the midseason when guys like JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows return from injuries and prospects like Paul Skenes and Jared Jones near the majors.
It's a perfectly fine low-risk, medium-upside move, with the condition that he is not the only addition they make to this rotation.
