Giger: Oh, Manny, did Lions already miss out on best chance to become elite?

ALTOONA, Pa. -- In the not-too-distant future, will we look back on the 2023 season and think: THAT was Penn State's best chance!

OK, so, best chance at what exactly?

The playoff will expand to 12 teams next season, and the Nittany Lions should be good enough to make the final 12 a whole bunch of times. So, there will be chances to do good things in the coming years.

But no, what I'm talking about is the "elite" question: Was 2023 Penn State's best chance to actually get into the final four and perhaps even win it all?

Or, put another way: Did the program miss out on its golden opportunity?

Manny Diaz is now gone. He of the No. 1 defense in the country, which has allowed only 223.2 yards per game. We've talked a lot about how this was a national championship caliber defense, but let's go a step further. That 223.2 yards per game figure is the lowest in the country in 12 YEARS, since Alabama in 2011 (183.6).

Diaz revolutionized Penn State's defense. Yes, the program has been very, very good defensively for a long, long time. But for the past couple of decades, at least, we saw the Lions morph into a bend-but-don't-break kind of defense. They were effective with it, because they could shut teams down in the red zone, but it didn't always look so dominant.

Diaz's aggressive defensive style worked wonders at Penn State. He had the athletes across all three levels to do exactly what he wanted to do, and under him, we saw the kind of unhinged aggressiveness that we never did under the likes of Tom Bradley or Brent Pry or anyone else in recent memory.

There's a 99 percent guarantee that Penn State's defense will drop off next season. And perhaps drop off in a big way. No matter who James Franklin hires as the next coordinator.

Defensive end Chop Robinson is gone. A first-round pick. You don't get guys like him too often. Watch this elite-level quickness.

Cornerback Kalen King is probably gone. Johnny Dixon, a very underrated cornerback, is gone. End Adisa Isaac and linebacker Curtis Jacobs could turn pro early, we'll have to wait and see. If all of them are gone, goodness, there will be some serious questions on defense next year.

The No. 1 loss, though, clearly will be Diaz himself. You just sort of figured that if he had come back for one more year, he would have pulled all the right strings again to make the defense dynamite.

On offense, Olu Fashanu will be gone, although he hasn't announced yet. He's only one of the best left tackles in Penn State history. Just look at this technique.

Center Hunter Nourzad is gone. Right tackle Caedan Wallace could turn pro early. We have to see if tight end Theo Johnson, an excellent blocker rather than just a pass catcher, will enter the draft early. Holy smokes, if all those guys depart, we once again will enter another season with the offensive line being a gigantic question mark.

We have to see which receivers Penn State can land in the transfer portal. Or if anybody that they land will be any good, after the highly disappointing seasons turned in by Dante Cephas and Malik McClain. Will those two be back? Does Penn State even want them back?

The receiving situation simply cannot be any worse next year. But honestly, will it really be a whole lot better? KeAndre Lambert-Smith still probably won't be a No. 1 Big Ten wideout, so if the Lions don't find one of those in the portal, they could be stuck in the mud once again in terms of the deep passing game.

The bottom line is, with all of those potential personnel losses, Penn State will take a massive hit on both sides of the ball. And yet, even with all of those guys, the team still could only muster a 10-2 season and wasn't even competitive offensively against Ohio State or Michigan.

Therein lies the rub. The offense. Talk about a colossal missed opportunity this year.

If we're going to look at Diaz as a defensive revolutionary, we can only view Mike Yurcich in highly offensive terms. The Lions looked incompetent on offense in their two biggest games, and that's a stain that will forever taint Yurcich's tenure.

The good news on offense is that Drew Allar will be back, along with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. And if you'll notice, when I write those two names in stories now, I'm leading with Allen. He's earned the top billing.

The issues, though, for new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki will be two-fold:

1. What can he do behind an offensive line that might be a problem, and ...

2. Will he be able to implement a system that can find out whether Allar truly is the real deal or not?

Many people -- me included -- went into this presumed two-year Allar window thinking the 2023 season would be a learning experience for the QB to absorb the ups and downs. He's definitely done that. Then, the thinking went, he'd return for a final season in 2024 and perhaps lead the team to natty contention before turning pro.

But right now, after watching him start 12 regular-season games, I cannot imagine Allar improving enough next year to be in position to declare for the NFL draft. He has so much work to do on his game that, again as of now, it seems silly to think he won't still be around in 2025.

Just watch this video. Seriously, spend 6 minutes watching it and then keep reading. This isn't anything close to an NFL quarterback.

There are high hopes for Kotelnicki. He was a good hire. But he's gonna have to find answers to a lot of potential issues if next year's offense is going to be any better.

Lastly, let's look at the schedule next year:

• at West Virginia
• vs. Bowling Green
• Bye
• vs. Kent State
• vs. Illinois
• vs. UCLA
• at USC
• Bye
• at Wisconsin
• vs. Ohio State
• vs. Washington
• at Purdue
• at Minnesota
• vs. Maryland

Yes, Penn State gets Michigan off the schedule. But the Pac-12 teams come on. That's a good tradeoff, in my opinion, but we'll have to wait and see how competitive those newcomers will be, initially and over time. The good news is that Ohio State comes to Beaver Stadium, and that the Buckeyes, USC and Washington will all be starting new quarterbacks next year.

Still, looking at that schedule above, there is no guarantee whatsoever that Penn State can navigate through to get to 10-2, which is what it'll take to reach the College Football Playoff. I could easily see 9-3, or perhaps even 8-4 if the personnel losses truly do become massive with a ton of draft-eligible guys departing early.

The transfer portal will determine a lot, not only for Penn State, but also for Ohio State, in particular. The Buckeyes have already lost a dozen players to the portal, and while you know they'll find good players somehow, there's no guarantee they will be your typical dominant Ohio State squad.

It's really a shame that Penn State couldn't find a way to beat the Buckeyes this year. They were a bit down and ripe for the taking, but they did have Marvin Harrison Jr., and Penn State had Mike Yurcich. Those two individuals essentially decided that game.

Michigan was just better than Penn State. No shame in losing that game. But there is enormous shame in Allar only having 70 yards passing and the fact that the Wolverines toyed with the Lions by not even attempting an offical pass over the final 2 1/2 quarters. That was truly unbelievable.

Bowl season and the immediate aftermath are times of optimism for fans. You're looking for reasons to feel good about next year. That's how fandom works.

And hey, Penn State certainly has things to feel good about with its future. None of this is meant to say the program is in any danger of falling off a cliff.

But when you think about the embarrassment of riches this year's Penn State team had -- you know, supposedly Franklin's best roster ever and all, plus the magnificent Manny Diaz -- it's tough to believe we will see a collection of talent this good any time soon.

All of which makes you shake your head and wonder if this just might have been the best we can really expect from Penn State for the foreseeable future.