Mike's Beer Bar War Room: Defense is getting needed reinforcements

Not having T.J. Watt available for the Steelers' wild-card playoff matchup against Buffalo is a massive loss. That is undeniable. Losing a true superstar player has a massive ripple effect over not only the entire defense but also the entire team.

However, there is also some good news for the Steelers' defense as they prepare to do battle with Josh Allen and Co. in what looks like a heavy weather game Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park, N.Y. 

Frankly, Watt’s case for Defensive Player of the Year is the strongest of any player in the league. His unavailability is a massive loss. A massive loss. Don’t forget that the Steelers are 1-10 when Watt is not in the starting lineup. 

Before leaving the game with his knee injury, Watt was once again outstanding in Baltimore. Here, he only beats two blockers on his way to racking up yet another sack as the NFL’s sack leader. He will be greatly missed. 

The good news is the spine of the Steelers' defense is finally getting healthy. It’s not perfect, but help is on the way. And, that could be of critical importance against the Bills. 

At linebacker in Baltimore, the snaps were divided quite evenly, which was rather surprising at first glance. Myles Jack was on the field for 35 of a possible 57 defensive snaps, which was most at the position. Usually, one of the off-ball linebackers plays a much higher percentage of the snap share. Mykal Walker played 24 snaps, Elandon Roberts played 22 returning from injury and Mark Robinson logged 13. 

When evaluating their play, Walker basically is what he is at this point, which is a backup that is adequate on a good day. To his credit, Robinson is coming off a very impressive outing in Baltimore -- his best regular season showing in the NFL. But, it was obviously a very small sample size. 

Jack had been fine to this point, but Week 18 was a step back for him. And considering his medical history/situation, Jack is really tough to count on. 

This is a well-schemed blitz by the Steelers, allowing Robinson to come clean. But Robinson looks like he is shot out of a cannon closing in on Tyler Huntley. Coming downhill in such a manner has never been a problem for Robinson, an explosive downhill athlete. 

The fact that Roberts only played 39% of the plays was alarming, but look at it another way: Roberts probably shouldn’t have been out there at all and really gutted it out in critical game to help his team. That’s just who Roberts is, which is tremendous. It would be really surprising if he doesn’t get back to somewhere around an 80% snap share in Buffalo, which could really boost the linebacker position overall. 

The safety position is much more exciting. As has become the norm, Patrick Peterson didn’t miss a snap at safety. Eric Rowe, who has been productive and a pleasant surprise, was on the field for 52 snaps, and Miles Killebrew for 25.

Expect Minkah Fitzpatrick and Damontae Kazee to return for the wild-card round. Of course, Fitzpatrick, still the NFL’s best safety, will slide back into his commanding role. But all of a sudden, the Steelers have four intriguing safeties rather than one, at best. 

How should that best shake out? While Peterson’s future might be at safety, for this game, he should go back to being an every down cornerback opposite Joey Porter Jr. Levi Wallace and Porter also didn’t miss a snap in Baltimore, while Chandon Sullivan was on the field for 72% of the defensive plays. 

The reassertion of Fitzpatrick and Kazee into the equation could really make the Steelers' defense stronger in several areas. 

Porter will be out there on a full-time basis and should follow Stefon Diggs. Peterson should then go back to Wallace’s role as the opposite outside cornerback. That cuts Wallace’s playing time a great deal, which is a good thing. But Wallace also could be back in the equation on the outside when the Steelers have three cornerbacks on the field with Peterson in the slot. While Sullivan played very well two weeks ago in Seattle, less of Sullivan is certainly a good thing for this defense. 

That leaves either Kazee or Rowe next to Fitzpatrick. Picking between those two isn’t an easy slam dunk choice at this juncture, but the Steelers would be wise to play more “big nickel” with all three safeties on the field that they have of late, which was frankly off the table since Killebrew is a special teams player, not a regular defender. They just didn’t have the safeties available to deploy this package. 

Big nickel against the Bills makes a lot of sense. For the season, Buffalo is passing the football on just 54.1% of their snaps. That is the 27th in the league. But over the past three weeks, Buffalo is at 47.7%, which is 30th. For the season, no offense throws the ball at a lower clip (47.6%) at home than the Bills. 

And, Buffalo utilizes 12 Personnel (one running back, two tight ends) a high percentage of the time when all their skill players are healthy. In 2022, the Bills were first in the league in 11 Personnel (one running back, one tight end), but wanted to be more diverse. This year, they used a first-round pick on Dalton Kincaid and now prefer to play with Diggs, Gabe Davis (who is questionable for this game), Kincaid and Dawson Knox on the field with a running back, usually James Cook, who's an excellent receiver in his own right. 

Kincaid causes problems. He isn’t Travis Kelce (no one is), but the Bills use the rookie in a similar manner. Kincaid is pretty much equal parts tight end and equal parts wide receiver that aligns all over the formation for matchup advantages. He’s a crisp route runner and dangerous after the catch. 

Diggs is the biggest threat in this passing game, but he also hasn’t quite been himself of late and Diggs faces a difficult test with Porter, who has averaged 0.9 yards per coverage snap this season as the nearest defender. That's the fourth lowest of any NFL cornerback with at least 250 coverage snaps. As for Diggs, he rebounded nicely last week (which is concerning), catching seven passes for 87 yards in Miami. But in Diggs’ seven games before Week 18, he averaged just 4.3 receptions per game for only 37.4 receiving yards. Diggs hasn’t been the same player over the second half of the season as he has been over his great career. 

This was Porter’s first career meeting (one of many presumably) against the Ravens. Late in the game, with the Steelers on the ropes, Lamar Jackson challenges the rookie cornerback in the end zone. Porter was having none of that and records his first career interception by using his huge body to shield Odell Beckham Jr. from the ball. 

Big nickel gives the Steelers some size to deal with the Bills running game, whether it is Cook or Allen running the football. But it also now gives them better options for Kincaid and more versatility overall, especially if Roberts is a fixture on the second level. Maybe the Steelers welcome Fitzpatrick back by asking him to follow Kincaid all over the field as Porter will with Diggs. Fitzpatrick "puts out fires," and Kincaid is a potential inferno, especially considering how tight ends haven't really abused the Steelers, of late.  

Only three offenses produce more yards per game than Buffalo, and only five produce more points per game. And, let's not forget the Bills have a superhero playing quarterback. Keeping this offense under wraps without Watt will be a huge challenge. But, the reinforcements to the spine of the Steelers' defense could make that task far more palatable.