There was plenty of buzz among players at PiratesFest this weekend that the team could take another big step forward in 2024 to the playoffs. It wasn't the first time that's happened -- the talk started in the later part of last season -- but the optimism is unwavering despite unexpectedly losing Johan Oviedo and Endy Rodríguez for next season.
A big reason for that optimism stands 6'7" and has a healed left fibula.
"It feels good to be ready from Day 1 and be healthy and help the team," Oneil Cruz said at PiratesFest Saturday, via interpreter Stephen Morales. "Last year, that wasn’t the case because of the injury, but I feel like I can help the team a lot just by being ready and being healthy to make it where we want it to be."
A lot has to go right for the Pirates to get better in 2024, and that includes Cruz having that breakout season. He showed some growth in the field and on the bases in his brief 2023 cameo before his season ended after a collision at home plate in early April. If those signs of progress continue, then he could be a true impact player.
"[He's] just a freak," Ke'Bryan Hayes said. "How he can impact the game, all facets of the game. Just what he does for the other team, their preparation, what they have to do to maneuver the lineup, it's huge for us. He can change the game at any time."
The Pirates need Cruz in a multitude of ways. First and foremost, they need a shortstop.
Cruz played nine games last season, but according to FanGraphs' calculations, he still led the team in WAR as a shortstop (0.3). Last year, the Pirates didn't have a true backup plan behind Cruz and finished last in baseball with -1.1 WAR from their shortstops. Finishing near the bottom of the league has been pretty common for them of late. Since 2016, their 5.1 WAR from shortstops is last in baseball, while every team besides the Tigers have produced at least twice as much team WAR as them.
Shortstop has been a series of misses the last few years. Kevin Newman had a great rookie season, but didn't produce much after that. Scouts banged the table for Erik Gonzalez, but his tools never all came together on the field. Cole Tucker had the pedigree and the prospect hype, but couldn't back that hype up. Cruz's 2022 season was far from perfect, but his .744 OPS was the second-highest of any Pirate shortstop since 2016 and he showed definitive improvement as the year progressed.
Sure, Newman had a BABIP-fueled .800 OPS in 2019, but Cruz's power was legit and he hit 17 home runs in about half a season's worth of games. The last Pirate to do that and get at least half of their reps at shortstop was Arky Vaughn in 1935.
While there's a lot to unpack from that rookie season, but one of the most important changes was that he got a better feel for the strike zone over the course of the season and cut down on swings out of the zone:
Cruz is most likely going to strike out more than his fair share no matter what, which is what makes those swing decisions so important. Fewer strikeouts gives him more opportunities to do damage, and swinging at strikes increases the odds he'll do something eye-opening.
This team needs that power. As a team, the Pirates slugged .392 last year, which ranked 24th in baseball. Their 159 home runs were 28th. Most of the big power bats are left-handed (Jack Suwinski, Rowdy Tellez, half of the switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds) but there's a way to space them out in the lineup, especially if Cruz goes back to batting leadoff.
And the Pirates desperately need a leadoff hitter. Last season, they ranked 26th in on-base percentage from hitters in the No. 1 spot in the order (.308), 25th in OPS (.689) and 25th in wRC+ (86).
Seven different players got at least 50 plate appearances out of the leadoff spot in 2023. That's not exactly a huge sample size, but that's roughly a dozen starts worth of at-bats in a spot in the order. That's enough to consider it a conscious decision and not just a matter of circumstance. Of that group, Andrew McCutchen performed unquestionably the best, posting a .396 OBP. Connor Joe had a really solid .350 OBP, and Hayes (who actually led the team with 201 plate appearances as a leadoff hitter) had the best OPS at .828.
All three are right-handed, though. While that's not necessarily a deal breaker, lefties Ji Hwan Bae, Jack Suwinski, Joshua Palacios and Tucupita Marcano all had an on-base percentage of .265 or lower. Cruz's OPS is going to be more slugging-heavy than OBP, but there's value in power out of the top spot too, especially since pitchers don't hit anymore and the bottom of the lineup can theoretically produce more. A second or third trip through the order could result in Cruz getting as many ducks on the pond as he would if he was batting third or fourth.
The Pirates didn't just lose one of their best players for most of last season when Cruz got hurt. They lost their shortstop, their leadoff hitter, arguably their best source of power. The team is getting all that back in 2024.
If he lives up to those high expectations his teammates have, then it's easy to see why they think they are going to being in the playoff mix this year. And if he does live up to those lofty expectations, it's going to be partially because he still found a way to get better last year.
"[I'm] definitely moving in the right direction," Cruz said. "The good thing is having a plan of growth as a player and all that. If something goes wrong, you move forward. But definitely having a plan and being around some veteran players is going to help me do what I was doing at the beginning of the season."
