The notion of replacing production left by a key defensive contributor is not a foreign one to the 2023 Steelers.
From the start of the regular season, this unit has had to compensate for losses of its captain, two starting inside linebackers, and three starting safeties. It became so much more than just the "next-man-up" cliche would suggest, as Omar Khan and the Steelers' front office had to make calls to more than one player who was on his respective couch and ask for his services throughout parts of the season.
This new-but-familiar situation is something this group is used to at this point. But, this new instance is perhaps the toughest task of these situations faced at points of the season.
T.J. Watt's status for Sunday's 1:02 p.m. playoff opener against the Bills in Orchard Park, N.Y. is dimming by the day. Multiple reports have suggested the Defensive Player of the Year candidate could miss multiple weeks with an MCL sprain sustained Saturday in Baltimore, should the Steelers advance past the Bills.
This locker room -- a buzzing, chipper, and excited one -- at the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex knows Watt is irreplaceable.
But, it would be damned if it didn't try to replace him in the short-term.
"I think that they believe in me, which I appreciate," Nick Herbig said Monday. "A lot of guys are just telling me, 'hey, we believe in you, it's your time to step up.' Obviously, T.J., too, is telling me that. Just having that support from a bunch of the guys, especially guys in the room, my coaches. Just excited. ... Coach (Mike) Tomlin's been saying the whole year, 'the standard is the standard,' so I think we've done a great job at every position, regardless if it's T.J. or not, of stepping up and filling into bigger roles."
It will be up to Herbig and Markus Golden to step in for Watt opposite of Alex Highsmith Sunday against the Bills. Golden stacked on a sack, two tackles for loss, two quarterback hits, and a fumble recovery in the Steelers' 17-10 win in Baltimore Saturday.
Herbig has been apt at making plays in the limited work he has gotten behind Watt this season. Two weeks ago in Seattle, Herbig recorded a strip sack and recovered that fumble deep inside of Seahawks territory in the fourth quarter. This season, Herbig has recorded three sacks, three QB hits, two forced fumbles, and one fumble recovery.
"He's been working all year, ever since he got here," Highsmith said of Herbig. "From the first day of OTAs he's come in and he's worked hard. Every time he's come in he's made a play and has made some type of impact play. For him to be able to come in and step up, he's built for these moments. I'm excited to see what he does."
The Steelers have recovered from the losses of Cole Holcomb and Kwon Alexander at inside linebacker, and have played parts of the season with Cam Heyward, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Keanu Neal on the shelf.
This loss is the hardest one to overcome, and history shows the Steelers have struggled to overcome not having Watt on the field.
The Steelers are 1-10 in games without Watt since his rookie season in 2017. According to data from StatMuse, the Steelers allow 26.3 points and 381.3 yards per game without Watt in the lineup.
One of these 11 instances came against the Bills, which exploited the Steelers' defense in a 38-3 win on Oct. 9, 2022 in Buffalo. In that game, the Bills posted 552 yards of offense, the most an opponent has gathered against a Watt-less Steelers defense.
Here is a chart, courtesy of StatMuse, with the game-by-game breakdown:
StatMuse
Per StatMuse, the Steelers are 69-33-2 since 2017 when Watt plays a full game. They allow 19.0 points per game in those instances.
This replacing of Watt, should he miss Sunday's game, will take an effort from all three levels of the field.
The Steelers have brought Myles Jack and Eric Rowe in from respective living rooms this season, and each have played major roles in the middle and back, respectively, of the Steelers' defense. The Steelers will also get reinforcement from the return of Damontae Kazee from his suspension. Fitzpatrick could return to provide a massive boost after missing three games with a knee injury.
"I guess they've got a good radar finding guys off the couch," Jack said with a grin. "Me, E-Rowe. I'm sure Omar will find somebody. But, no, a guy like T.J. you can never replace. Everybody just has to step up and do twice as much as they've been doing. We've got pass rushers. We've got Highsmith, we've got Cam, couple of young guys that are getting right. But, 90, you can never replace that. So, praying for him, hoping he has a speedy recovery, and we handle business and get him back later on."
Watt is a strong candidate to win the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year award for the second time in his career. His 19.0 sacks led the NFL for a third time in is career -- no other player has led the NFL in sacks three times -- and he added four forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries, an interception, and a touchdown.
That's a lot from one player. It's that exact logic that applies to a total team effort needed to replicate his efforts.
