The Pirates came into this offseason knowing they needed to bolster their rotation. That need was only greatened whenever Johan Oviedo underwent Tommy John surgery, which will keep him out all of next season.
And yet, at this point, their free agent haul is very similar to what it was last winter: A veteran lefty on a one-year, $8 million deal (Rich Hill a year ago, Martín Pérez now) and a veteran reclamation project on a smaller deal (Vince Velasquez and Marco Gonzales). Mix in the limited options who should be available for the opening day rotation, and the Pirates are projected to be 26th in pitcher WAR and 27th in rotation ERA, according to FanGraphs.
There's still about a month until pitchers and catchers report to Bradenton, Fla., so they can still add. They still want to add to that group, and from what I have gathered, they have shot for a higher-tier of pitching this winter than they have in the past.
Ben Cherington has yet to sign a major-league free agent to a multi-year deal in his time as Pirates general manager, but the team has made multi-year offers to pitchers this winter. Per sources, they also have offered eight-figure annual salaries on deals, including at least one that was around $15 million in AAV. Put those pieces together, and the Pirates could have very well made an offer that surpasses the three-year, $39 million deal Francisco Liriano got, which currently stands as the largest free agent contract in franchise history. At the very least, it would blow past Russell Martin's two-year, $17 million for the largest contract they ever gave to a non-returning player.
To this point, though, those big offers haven't yielded a big signing. I doubt there's much wiggle room to up the ante much more. Spotrac currently has the Pirates' payroll at just over $75 million for 2024. The target range for payroll is somewhere around $80-something million. A theoretical $15 million deal would push the figure to $90 million, and while I could see that theoretically happening, it doesn't leave much wiggle room elsewhere.
This team's greatest need is pitching. They have almost no path to being competitive in 2024 if they have a bottom five rotation, like FanGraphs currently pegs them. The calvary could come midseason when Paul Skenes is promoted, JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows come back from Tommy John surgery and other prospects like Jared Jones and Anthony Solometo get on the big-league radar. The question is can they still be playing meaningful baseball come around the All-Star break, when the majority of those guys should be ready.
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• If not starting pitching, where does this team add? They've been connected to Michael A. Taylor in rumors, though they aren't necessarily looking for just a center fielder, but rather an outfielder in general. This is the time of year where the bullpen market picks up a bit more. I would consider those lower-cost acquisitions. But if there's a big, or even medium-sized, splash to be made, it almost has to be the rotation.
• Henry Davis hinted at PirateFest that Quinn Priester has "revamped how he wants to throw the baseball." I heard last year's drop in velocity was a mechanical issue, one that both sides worked on all season. There were times in his delivery where he would nail everything and hit the mid-90s, but if he got out of sync, it was 91 mph. He obviously needs that velocity to be successful in the big-leagues, and if he's found a way to consistently hit those mechanical cues, it would be a big break for him.
• Yeah, it was a bad look that Priester, Roansy Contreras and Luis Ortiz all had velocity drops last year. That lost velo wasn't because of specific instruction from Pirates coaching. Each had individual issues that needed to be sorted out, and from what I could tell, progress has been made.
• Is this Contreras' make or break year? Don't know if the Pirates have many options left if he doesn't rebound. The breaking stuff was resembling its 2022 form towards the end of the season, after his midseason stint in Pirate City. But not to beat a dead horse, it's going to come down to the velocity.
• Connor Joe at second base? Well, maybe not as a regular thing, but he took reps in practice last year and has continued to do so this winter. Something to keep in mind since I doubt both Liover Peguero and Nick Gonzales will both be on the roster opening day as second basemen. Jared Triolo would be my pick as the team's utilityman, but it's a good tool to have in the backpocket.
• Davis came into the offseason wanting to put on weight to better prepare to catch. You can tell he's added some mass, especially in the upper body. Meanwhile, it looks like David Bednar has slimmed down a bit.
• Speaking of Davis, I can't help but think back to the end of 2022 when his swing got out of sync due to injuries and time off. His problems at the plate started long before he hit the injured list last season, but I'm not at all surprised that his response was to go to Driveline for an assessment. He's as driven as they come in this sport, and it was guaranteed that he wasn't going to take his rookie struggles laying down.
• I fully expect that by the end of 2024, we'll know if Davis is a big-league catcher or not. He's getting the opportunity to show he can do the job. I wouldn't overlook Jason Delay, though, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets more playing time than people would expect. This pitching staff loves throwing to him, he's one of the best pitch framers in the game and this team has turned to the extremely defensive-focused Jacob Stallings and Austin Hedges as starters in the past. Defense is always paramount for the Pirates with their catchers.
• Wishing the best for Robby Incmikoski, who is one of several good people who worked on the Pirates production at AT&T SportsNet who won't make the transition to SportsNet Pittsburgh. And in a lot of those cases, that's a Fenway Sports Group decision, not a Pirate one.
• Concluding by touching on my last Friday Insider, the plan all along for Bednar and Mitch Keller was to get the arbitration settlement out of the way first. Next step: See if something longer term makes sense for both sides. My bet would be that continues on into spring training.
