ALTOONA, Pa. -- Now that things have settled down in the coaching carousel and transfer portal, it's a good time to make some early predictions for Penn State's 2024 season.
I've always liked making predictions soon after one season, but that's foolish nowadays with so much movement taking place in early January. Making a prediction too early can blow up in your face if something big happens.
For instance, if Mike Norvell had gotten the Alabama job, I'm convinced we'd be talking right now about the strong possibility of James Franklin going to Florida State.
I won't beat around the bush with my overall predictions. Like them or not, here ya go ...
• Record: 9-3
• Playoff appearance: No
The primary reason? Well, it's the same thing Franklin said after the loss to Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl: Too many moving parts. I'll explain why in a bit.
Could the Lions go 10-2 and reach the 12-team playoff? Sure, they could. But at this point, predicting 10-2 seems to be based much more in sheer hope than reality. There are just waaaay too many question marks for me to feel overly confident heading into next season.
Others, however, do have more confidence in the Lions. Here's a breakdown of some prominent way-too-early top 25s. You gotta figure that anyone who has Penn State in the top 12 is counting on a 10-2 record, while those outside the top 12 are figuring on 9-3 or worse.
• Pro Football Focus (Chadwick): No. 8
• On3 (Simonton): No. 9
• Yahoo!Sports (Bromberg): No. 10
• Action Network (McMurphy): No. 11
• Sports Illustrated (Forde): No. 11
• ESPN (Schlabach): No. 12
• USA Today (Smith, Myerberg): No. 15
• The Sporting News (Bender): No. 15
• CBS Sports (Dodd): No. 16
• The Athletic (Mandel): No. 18
Here are my biggest concerns for next season, and why I cannot assume 10-2 or a playoff appearance.
MASSIVE PERSONNEL LOSSES
First and foremost is Manny Diaz, the biggest departure from this past season. The defensive coordinator was phenomenal, and Tom Allen will have a very tough time trying to fill those enormous shoes.
Penn State is losing a huge number of outstanding or very good players, particularly on defense.
• LT Olu Fashanu was one of the best Penn State players of the past, well, ever, and will be a top-10 NFL Draft pick.
• TE Theo Johnson was an excellent pass catcher and blocker.
• RT Caedan Wallace improved this season and finally lived up to his potential.
• C Hunter Nourzad was an excellent leader on the O-line.
• DE Chop Robinson is a likely first-round pick.
• DE Adisa Isaac was a major force.
• CB Kalen King looks like a second-round pick.
• CB Johnny Dixon was very good and extremely reliable.
• CB Daequan Hardy was effective and consistent.
• LB Curtis Jacobs was never great but was solid.
• S Keaton Ellis was a nice role player.
Goodness, that's a heckuva a lot of talent. Six starters off the nation's No. 1 defense, plus the fantastic coordinator. And three starters on the O-line.
We can talk all we want about the next man up mentality. And Penn State has a lot of talent in the program after years of strong recruiting.
But let's get real here. Replacing all of those dudes up above is going to be extremely challenging. As mentioned before, if you're just assuming Penn State will be able to do so with few problems, then you're hanging on to hope more than understanding reality.
OFFENSIVE LINE CONCERNS
Here we go again. Just about every year, the O-line is a major question mark entering the season, and that will be the case in 2024 as the Lions have to replace three starters.
Drew Shelton should be able to step in and play well at left tackle. But there will be a dropoff from Fashanu. Nolan Rucci never lived up to his 5-star hype at Wisconsin, but a change of scenery should be good for him as he looks to win the right tackle job. Still, Rucci is very inexperienced and will need time to develop.
The program has recruited well with tackles J'ven Williams and Alex Birchmeier, both of whom could challenge Rucci at right tackle.
Look, there's talent at the O-line spots, but much of it is unproven. A lot of the guys have tremendous upside, but the potential may not all be realized during the 2024 season. Plus, it's going to take time for everyone to gel.
The Lions have two good running backs in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, but their success will depend on the offensive line. So, be careful getting too excited about the running attack because we just don't know how effective the line will be.
WIDE RECEIVER STILL BIG CONCERN
Adding Julian Fleming from Ohio State will help. But he's not a No. 1 Big Ten receiver, with only 79 catches in four seasons, so there's still a glaring hole among the wideouts.
The hope is that Fleming, known for his work ethic and leadership, will be able to help lead a receiver room that has a lot of good, young players. Maybe he can help get more out of everybody, including KeAndre Lambert-Smith, and also help bring along guys such as Harrison Wallace III and Kaden Saunders.
Wallace being injured for much of the season badly hurt the receiving corps in 2023. If he can stay healthy, there's still the possibility that he could become the team's No. 1 wideout. But that, too, falls into the hope category.
It's incredible that Penn State couldn't land a known productive receiver from the transfer portal this cycle. You'd think, after everything the program went through this season, that the coaches would have done whatever it took to sign a big-time threat. Maybe Franklin doesn't want to get into huge NIL bidding wars for players in the portal, but hey, sometimes you gotta put your money where your mouth is and do what you gotta do.
Because again, if the thinking is that adding Fleming will solve all the problems, then Penn State fans had better hope he can finally live up to the lofty potential from his recruiting days.
GETTING COORDINATED
It's pretty wild to think that Penn State has to replace all three coordinators coming off a 10-3 season, but that's where the program wound up. And don't kid yourself: This is a big deal.
Diaz left to become head coach at Duke and was replaced by Allen, the former Indiana head coach. Offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich was fired late in the regular season and replaced by Andy Kotelnicki, who was at Kansas. Special teams coordinator Stacy Collins left a few days ago to return to Boise State and has yet to be replaced.
Kotelnicki was running the triple option at Kansas. That's not gonna work with a pocket passer in Drew Allar, so the OC will have to make a lot of adjustments.
Allen is not Diaz. Not by a long shot.
Collins did a nice job. We'll see if Franklin hires a new special teams coordinator or decides to split the duties with someone already on staff.
Coaching turnover is inevitable in college football, and we've seen a lot of it in the post-Paterno era. Still, there's a difference between losing some assistants and losing all three coordinators, because coordinators set the tone and devise overall schemes for each unit.
There will be a learning curve for everyone in the program, all sides of the ball, having new people in charge. Not to say that's the be all, end all or anything, but this again falls under the "too many moving parts" component when it comes to feeling totally comfortable or overly optimistic.
IS ALLAR GOOD ENOUGH?
I have no idea if Allar is very good. I lean toward no, because he's just all over the place when it comes to consistency, delivery, footwork, seeing the field and trusting receivers.
But ... but ... he only threw two interceptions all season!
So what.
I'd rather he threw 8-10 interceptions if it meant he was actually, you know, being aggressive with the football and helping the overall offense -- receivers included -- develop into a more dangerous attack.
What we don't know is how much of the blame falls on Allar. Was he hesitant and tentative on his own, or was it because the coaches made him that way by constantly reminding him to protect the football and just be a game manager?
Penn State had an awesome defense in 2023, so it didn't need Allar and the offense to excel most of the time. Except for against Ohio State, Michigan and Ole Miss, all games where the QB struggled.
Losing Diaz and all that personnel on defense will make 2024 a whole lot different. The offense will have to do more heavy lifting, and that means Allar has to take big steps forward.
Can he? Sure, it's possible. He has a fantastic skill set. But that doesn't mean he's anywhere close to being a really good quarterback just yet, so he will enter 2024 as a question mark, as well.
