Teams that make runs into March tend to be deep. They're able to stand tall once conference tournament time begins because they have strength in numbers. They're built to win one way but can switch to another gear if that primary source of production isn't up to par.
That's the concern for this Pitt team as the season enters February.
Ten scholarship players dressed for the Panthers in their 70-60 win over Notre Dame on Saturday night here at the Petersen Events Center, this after Michael Hueitt, Jr. left the program earlier this week and Jorge Diaz Graham was ruled out indefinitely with a foot injury.
Teams win in February and March with numbers. The processes of preparing with low numbers will have to be a chess match Jeff Capel plays daily with nine games left until the ACC Tournament begins March 12.
Capel sounds up for that chess match:
"It's not a tough adjustment at all. It's not at all," Capel said. "I mean, at this point in the season we're not practicing for a long period of time. If this would have been earlier in the season, it would have affected us. We have 10 scholarship guys that are able to play and we have walk-ons that do an outstanding job to help us. It doesn't bother us. Jorge's does because he was a rotation player and he was a guy, his size can spread the floor and make some plays. We'll be OK."
Not having key pieces, especially in the frontcourt when Papa Kante's season-long ACL injury is taken into consideration, could catch up to these Panthers no matter the opponent. In cases like Saturday against a bottom-two ACC team like Notre Dame, more than half of Pitt's attempts from the field came from beyond the 3-point arc. When they attempted shots from within, only 50% fell through.
The Panthers entered Saturday's game shooting 40.8% from the field, the second-to-last mark in ACC play. They are the worst rebounding team in ACC play, as well, at 22.7 per game with a minus-3 margin. Pitt entered Saturday with the most 3-pointers attempted in ACC play, but their 33.3% conversion rate is good for 11th in the conference in such games.
This team is slowly reverting back to a "3-and-D" way, with very little inside presence. It seems comfortable living that way.
"We've got more to give," Blake Hinson said. "We're hitting our stride, for sure, but it's not our best."
But that approach can only take them so far.
A case-study example of a missing frontcourt and having to consistently live off of the 3 was on display Saturday. Pitt started the game 0-for-9 from 3 and didn't make one until there were 4:24 left in the first half. At that point, Pitt trailed the Irish by a point. Pitt then made 4 of 5 3s to close the half on a 16-3 run and take a 28-22 lead. In the second half against the Irish, Pitt caught fire for a 6 of 10 clip from 3.
"Just belief in yourself and your teammates," Bub Carrington said. "We all preach before games, 'expect the best from myself, expect the best from my teammates,' and everything else will fall in line."
But when Pitt has to dress 10 scholarship players against better teams coming up -- N.C. State and Virginia, their next two opponents, are a combined 15-7 in ACC play -- how can Pitt expect this one-dimensional approach to sustain?
The frontcourt tandem of Federiko Federiko and Guillermo Diaz Graham were expected to take major steps this season, and the centers have leveled off compared to their strong finishes to last season in ACC Tournament play -- prior to a knee injury to Federiko -- and through their NCAA Tournament run. This season, the duo is combining for 12.0 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. They were non-factors in scoring in this win over Notre Dame, with Federiko attempting just one field goal total and Guillermo taking three shots from within the 3-point arc.
Federiko's presence defensively has been solid over the last two years, but his offensive game is in a slow development. With twin brother Jorge injured, Guillermo is likely to space the floor in the stretch role. That leaves two seven-footers with little to no offensive presence inside of the paint, and that can become a problem if Pitt has to face North Carolina's Armando Bacot, Duke's Kyle Filipowski, Clemson's PJ Hall, or any of the other elite big men in the ACC come tournament time.
"We've never played Jorge in the frontcourt," Capel said. "I mean, he was a guard, like a wing for us. Our rotation's still solid there with Federiko, with G. Now we've put Will (Jeffress) there, Blake, if we need to slide Zack (Austin) down we can do that. I feel good about where we are with that."
Austin and Jeffress' athleticism and defensive savvies are desirable, but they would be giving more than a few inches to Bacot, Filipowski, and Hall in those games. Offensively, Pitt would have to resort to more "3 and D" ball because of a lack of size underneath.
That can and has worked, but it comes with a risk of not being sustainable.
