Halicke: Finding the best fit between Pickett, Rudolph, Fields

The Steelers have a lot of decisions to make regarding the state of their roster as they prepare for the 2024 season, and no other position is more important than quarterback. Not only is the NFL a quarterback-driven league, but we know how important quarterback is to the Steelers because it's important to Art Rooney II.

"In terms of the next step," Rooney told select reporters in January, "we need to make sure we do everything we can to get quality play out of our quarterback position going forward."

Now, Rooney would go on to say that the team was committed to Kenny Pickett, and also reaffirmed Mike Tomlin's sentiment that the Steelers want a reunion with Mason Rudolph, creating a quarterback competition this summer in Latrobe. That's the Steelers' priority this spring. And, when Omar Khan addresses the media this week at the Combine in Indianapolis, I'm sure we'll get even further clarity on what the Steelers want as free agency begins in only two weeks.

It makes a ton of sense that the franchise is committed to giving Pickett a fair shot at being the starting quarterback. The Steelers' 2022 first-round pick is heading into his third season, meaning the Steelers have to decide next spring whether they should pick up Pickett's fifth-year option, which will surely be very expensive. Giving him the starting job in Year 3 would give the Steelers a definitive answer if Pickett is their guy or not.

But, what makes the most sense for the Steelers at the quarterback position in terms of Xs and Os? The fact that Pickett is heading into Year 3 without any designation that he's the unquestioned, undisputed starter is troublesome. So, let's set aside roster implications and all other decisions to be made by the front office, look at some film and data, and see what makes the most sense for the Steelers on the field regarding Pickett, Rudolph and everyone's favorite rumored quarterback, Justin Fields. Then, we can weigh the roster implications.

KENNY PICKETT

By this point, we know quite a bit about Pickett. We've got a 25-game sample size at our disposal. And, the reason why he's still under consideration to be the starting quarterback of the Steelers is because we've seen flashes of his potential. Specifically, we've seen Pickett really shine late in games, specifically in the fourth quarter. This past season, Pickett completed 68.1% of his passes and posted a 96.5 passer rating in the fourth quarter, the latter of which is significantly higher than his career mark of 78.8. No matter the offensive system, there's always consideration for a guy who is willing and has the ability to put the team on his back late in games.

However, there are multiple red flags regarding the rest of his game. Specifically, a lack of poise in the pocket is the most concerning trait. There are times in which he's hung tough to make good throws ...

... and then there are times in which he's spun directly into danger when he doesn't have to:

But, how could Arthur Smith's system fix some of these issues? And, that shouldn't be the only question. The Steelers should also be confident that Pickett could develop into a legitimate NFL quarterback. Otherwise, it's time to pull the plug before even committing in Year 3.

Under Smith, the Steelers are expected to have a run-heavy system that uses healthy portions of larger personnel. That should build a good framework around whoever is under center. And, Smith's passing game has typically utilized a lot of play-action and tries to exploit the middle of the field quite a bit. So, what can we take from Pickett's first two years that could make us think he could take a significant step forward in 2024?

For starters, Pickett's numbers passing out of play-action are very solid. In 2023, Pickett completed 76.4% of play-action passes for 368 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also posted 6.69 yards per attempt and a 105.7 passer rating out of play-action. His numbers in play-action from under center were pretty similar, completing 73.3% of his passes for 211 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions, with 7.03 yards per attempt and a 103.6 passer rating.

In terms of targeting the middle of the field, this is one area where Pickett has been inconsistent. When targeting the middle of the field in 2023, Pickett posted an 85.5 passer rating with zero touchdowns and one interception between 0-10 yards from the line of scrimmage. He was markedly better in the 10-20 yard range, posting a 103.2 passer rating with one touchdown and no interceptions, but completed only 2 of 10 passes for one touchdown and two interceptions in the 20-plus range.

At the end of the day, Pickett lacks consistency, even when throwing on platform. There are times in which he can throw with anticipation and fire a strike ...

... then there are the perplexing misses that pop up way too frequently:

Couple that inconsistency with chronic issues in the pocket, and that's why so many people are ready to pull the plug on Pickett. But, the ones who make the decisions for the Steelers don't seem to be among those people. Ultimately, that's all that matters. 

MASON RUDOLPH

Rudolph is in the running for the Steelers' starting job at quarterback because he gave the team what they were lacking from the pocket. While Pickett was wildly inconsistent, Rudolph made throw after throw after throw from the pocket, regardless of whether it was on time and clean ...

... or he waited and waited, stood his ground and fired a strike with no room around him:

Any time a quarterback can provide that kind of poise from the pocket, it opens up everything on offense. When that happens, the system doesn't have to rely on the running game to get going in order for play-action and everything else with the passing game to be effective. Rudolph's play unlocked the Steelers' ability to threaten defenses deep, which helped open things up for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to pound defenses into submission -- a true catch-22 situation.

That being said, Smith's system will rely heavily on the run. So, Rudolph will have to play within the system. Looking at Rudolph's play-action numbers in the four games he started for Pittsburgh, he completed 63.2% of his passes for 155 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions, while averaging 8.16 yards per attempt and posting an 88.7 passer rating. However, Rudolph's adjusted completion percentage on play-action -- which accounts for drops, throw aways, hit as thrown and batted passes -- was 86.7%, which is almost identical to Pickett's 86.5%. Rudolph can work well out of play-action.

And, Rudolph's stats in between the numbers were superb. In 0-10 yards from the line of scrimmage, Rudolph completed 23 of 26 passes for 183 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, a passer rating of 121.6. In the 10-20 range, Rudolph was 7 of 9 for 234 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, a perfect 158.3 passer rating.

The biggest and most looming question about Rudolph is if he would be able to not only replicate these numbers, but sustain them throughout the course of an NFL season. Four games played at this level -- especially considering the quality of his play in his earlier years -- is an awfully small sample size. Granted, there's a lot to love about the sample size. Rudolph threw with anticipation, ran the offense efficiently from the pocket and tested defenses both horizontally and vertically. These are all things that made the Steelers' offense look like an actual NFL offense.

However, it's still only four games. There's reason to be even a tiny bit skeptical. Otherwise, there'd be NFL teams lining up to throw fat contracts in his direction when free agency begins.

JUSTIN FIELDS

Without doing too much of a deep dive into any quarterback that's not worn a Steelers uniform, we can dig a little bit into why they might or might not fit in Pittsburgh -- again, based on Xs and Os. Since the most amount of noise is on Fields, we'll take a closer look at what he brings to the table.

First, the pros. Fields' ceiling is very high. He's obviously a superb athlete and runner, which always stresses defenses. In 2022, Fields racked up a whopping 1,143 rushing yards and led qualifying rushers with 7.1 yards per carry. And, Fields has plenty of arm talent, especially when throwing the deep ball. The numbers back that up, too. In 2023, Fields posted a 114.6 passer rating when throwing the ball 20-plus yards downfield, which included 18 big time throws to only one turnover worthy play, according to Pro Football Focus. Eight of Fields' 16 touchdown passes in 2023 came on these deep throws. And, he's been doing this since his rookie year in 2021:

Here's a great example of Fields' velocity, touch and placement when throwing deep. He's got a special arm for these types of throws, and has also done it in the Chicago elements, as well. When talking about the Steelers' offense being unlocked when Rudolph stretch defenses with deep throws, Fields can absolutely do that, as well.

Here's another play from this past season in which Fields really shows of his ability to create outside the pocket, improvise and really use his athleticism and arm to make a great throw:

This off-platform throw is not easy whatsoever, especially when running to the left and trying to find a receiver that's broken off his initial route. These types of plays can be so overlooked when they shouldn't. Also, the one-handed play-action fake is flawless here.

Obviously, Fields isn't a finished product. Otherwise, the Bears wouldn't be looking to trade him should they decide to hold onto the first overall pick in this year's draft. Perhaps the biggest flaw in Fields' game is turning the ball over. In that same season in which Fields racked up more than 1,100 yards on the ground, Fields also led the NFL with 16 fumbles. He's fumbled the ball 38 times in three NFL seasons, losing 11 of them. Adding in the 30 interceptions he's thrown, that's 41 turnovers in three seasons. He's played 40 NFL games, so that's about one turnover per game. That's a way to put stress on your own defense and even lose football games.

For as good as Fields is throwing the deep ball, his consistency in the short and intermediate throws is lacking. As a rookie, four of his 10 interceptions came in the 0-10 yard range, and he threw four more in the same range in his second season. While he improved in that area in 2023, posting a 105.9 passer rating, his intermediate throws regressed, especially in between the numbers. In that area, Fields completed 11 of 19 passes for 200 yards, but threw no touchdowns and four interceptions, a 54.6 passer rating. If you're going to play in Smith's offense, you've gotta be able to throw to the middle of the field.

Fields also has some footwork issues that can still get him into trouble and force him to spray some throws that NFL quarterbacks shouldn't:

Fields was great in this game against the Falcons in Week 17 of this past season, but the footwork issues still popped up on film -- even on some throws that resulted in positive plays. Here, Fields doesn't properly line his feet up towards his target and widens his base a little too much, which is why he misses on what should be a rather simple throw to the flat.

Fields is and should be an intriguing target for teams looking to add to, or maybe even upgrade their quarterback room. But, only at the right price.

FINAL THOUGHTS

• What would a trade for Fields mean for Pickett?

It would be the end for Pickett in Pittsburgh. The Steelers wouldn't make that trade without picking up Fields' fifth-year option, which is expected to be $25.7 million. If Fields is acquired, he'll be handed the reins to the offense.

This does, however, fly in the face of what Rooney and Tomlin have said about Pickett so far. Should this happen, something drastically changed since then.

• If Fields and Pickett are both unproven quarterbacks on rookie contracts, and Pickett has one more year of control than Fields, why bother making the trade?

Because Fields has a higher ceiling than Pickett. All Fields might need is the right system to explode into the stratosphere. He's got superstar tools, but lacks consistency in short and intermediate throws and doesn't protect the ball well. Very little about Pickett's game screams that he can become a superstar. And despite all of Fields' struggles, which can also be somewhat attributed to the system in which he played, like Pickett, he's been able to put the ball in the end zone. Fields has thrown 40 touchdowns and ran for 14 more in 40 career games. Pickett's only produced 17 total touchdowns (13 passing, four rushing) in 25 games.

• Where does this leave Rudolph?

Based on comments by Rooney and Tomlin, Rudolph is the priority for the Steelers in free agency. Re-signing Rudolph gives the Steelers a contingency plan they are comfortable with should Pickett fail, whether that be midseason or should Pickett lose a quarterback competition in training camp.

• What about any other quarterback?

Should Rudolph sign elsewhere and the Steelers not trade for Fields, Ryan Tannehill and Russell Wilson could be targets. Both quarterbacks are on the back-9 of their respective careers, but still have enough ability to challenge Pickett for the starting job in training camp. Tannehill's best years were in Smith's system with the Titans and Wilson will earn Hall of Fame consideration when all is said and done. His style of quarterback could still work in a run-oriented system, and he could come quite cheap once his inevitable departure from Denver takes place.

• What about Kirk Cousins?

He'll cost way too much money, and he's likely going back to Minnesota.

• If the Steelers were to trade for Fields, what will they have to give up?

Should the Bears shop Fields, they'll lose a bit of leverage. They might be able to pull a second-round pick from a team desperate enough for Fields, but I don't see the Steelers doing that. Should the Bears be willing to take the Steelers' third-round pick and one or two late picks in the future, then that might entice the Steelers to pounce on it. But, to reiterate, I don't see the Steelers giving up anything higher than a third-round pick for Fields. It would behoove Khan to at least make the phone call and see what the price is, if he hasn't already. That's just a general manager doing his job.

• What quarterback scenario is most likely?

Rudolph re-signs and challenges Pickett for the starting job in training camp. I'd almost bank on that. I just don't see the Steelers doing a complete 180 on Pickett. But, let's see when Khan has to say when he addresses the media this week in Indianapolis.

All stats in this article are pulled from Pro Football Focus, Pro-Football Reference and FantasyPoints.com.