Just as it was one year ago, it will be again come Selection Sunday.
Pitt's 72-65 loss to top-seeded North Carolina in the ACC Tournament at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. Friday leaves Jeff Capel's program in no-man's land for the next 43 and a half hours, until the NCAA Tournament selection committee unveils its field of 68 at 6 p.m. Sunday.
Having entered this ACC Tournament as the No. 4 seed, the Panthers were firmly on the bubble with respect to a second straight trip to the NCAA Tournament. Their NCAA NET ranking and KenPom ranking identically at No. 40 overall optically positions the Panthers among the field, but the computers don't have all of the say in who gets to advance. The Panthers will have to rely on other results in determining whether they'll play in the big dance or the NIT.
"Our metrics are better than they were last year," Capel said. "Our NET, the KenPom stuff, whatever that stuff means, it’s better than it was last year. I think our league is better than it was last year.
"... I like our chances if we’re able to get in. I think we have become a really good basketball team. Hopefully you look at the whole body of work. I think we are a team that can be dangerous in the Tournament.”
Pitt finished 4-5 in "Quadrant 1" games and 5-3 in "Quadrant 2" games and lost two Quadrant 3 games, but the overall strength of schedule in the nonconference period could be their Achilles' heel. According to KenPom, Pitt's nonconference strength of schedule ranks 340th out of 362 across college basketball. The only teams with a higher KenPom rating than Pitt who have a worse nonconference strength of schedule are Iowa State (KenPom No. 9) and TCU (KenPom No. 32).
"Just personally, that just doesn't make sense at all," North Carolina coach Hubert Davis said of Pitt being on the outside looking into the NCAA Tournament. "I don't care what metric, whatever you look at. There's no way that you can look at this game and look at Pitt and not say it's definitely an NCAA Tournament team. And, not just an NCAA Tournament team, a team that could go far in the tournament. ... Extremely well-coached. Coach Capel does a fantastic job. The players that they have on there, not only are they big-time college players, they've got future NBA players over there, and they play together as a team.”
According to ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi in his update posted at 9:36 p.m. Friday, Pitt remains one of the "first four out" after the loss to the Tar Heels:
"Pitt's NCAA chances likely just a bit short," Lunardi wrote.
The worst loss on Pitt's resume is its seven-point defeat to Missouri Nov. 28 at the Petersen Events Center. At the time, nothing was thought of it as the Tigers had improved to 6-2. But, Missouri lost 20 of their next 22 games and went winless in SEC play. Had Pitt won that game, the conversation might be different in its entirety.
Pitt has quality on its resume. It upset Duke in Cameron Indoor Stadium and ended Virginia's 23-game home winning streak, it beat Wake Forest and fellow ACC Tournament semifinalist N.C. State twice, and it beat Virginia Tech. Those are resume boosters and it's especially imperative that Pitt beat Duke, Virginia, and N.C. State in true road games.
The "bubble," just as it is every year, is loaded with many tournament-worthy teams. Here is a look at a handful:
• New Mexico (24-9, NET ranking 23, KenPom ranking 28) plays at midnight in the Mountain West Tournament.
• Villanova (18-15, NET 39, KenPom 35) is out of the Big East Tournament after losing to Marquette Thursday.
• Texas A&M (19-13, NET 46, KenPom 47) beat No. 2-seed Kentucky in the SEC Tournament Friday and will play in Saturday's semifinal.
• Mississippi State (21-12, NET 41, KenPom 27) upset No. 1-seed Tennessee in the SEC Tournament Friday and will play in the other semifinal Saturday.
• Ohio State (20-13, NET 53, KenPom 48) beat Iowa in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament but lost to No. 2-seed Illinois by three in the quarterfinal.
There are plenty of other bid stealers out there, as well, but the SEC Tournament becomes one to watch with Pitt's tournament chances on the line.
