ALTOONA, Pa. -- How much can an assistant coach be worth? And by that, I mean a revolutionary assistant coach who comes in and makes an incredible impact in a short period of time.
Former offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead was such an assistant coach, particularly in 2016. Nearly a decade later, Penn State still hasn't found an OC who can hold a candle to JoeMo. The latest hope is that Andy Kotelnicki can recapture that kind of magic, following failures to do so by Ricky Rahne, Kirk Ciarrocca and Mike Yurcich.
The feeling here -- and pretty much everywhere -- is that Manny Diaz was a phenomenal defensive coordinator during his two seasons at Penn State. And, like Moorhead, the kind of guy who will not be replaced very easily for perhaps a long, long time.
Diaz was that good. My belief is he was the biggest loss of the offseason, more so than even a first-round draft pick in Chop Robinson and some other key departures on the defensive side.
It's also my belief that Penn State's defense will suffer a pretty significant dropoff this year under new DC Tom Allen.
The big question is: How much a dropoff?
Now, to be clear, the Lions still should have a very good defense. Very good as in top 15 in the country, and perhaps contending for top 10. But considering that Penn State led the nation in yards allowed per game during the regular season last year, expecting anything close to that level of play seems far fetched.
Along with Diaz and Robinson, Penn State also lost:
• Standout defensive end Adisa Isaac
• All three cornerbacks: Kalen King, Johnny Dixon and Daequan Hardy
• Longtime starting linebacker Curtis Jacobs
• A solid role player in safety Keaton Ellis
That is a ton to replace, and while the Lions do have good depth at pretty much every position, a lot of it is nowhere near as proven as those guys above.
So, Allen will have a very difficult task of stepping into Diaz's shoes and trying to equal what Manny did -- without having as many proven players.
Will Allen be up to the task? He never had anywhere near as much talent when he was head coach at Indiana, so he has to be loving the fact that he now has far superior players and depth across the board.
It will be very, very interesting to see how Allen adjusts in his first season.
Here is a look at the current state of the Lions' defense:
• DEFENSIVE LINE
Depth chart: DE Abdul Carter, Dani Dennis-Sutton, Zuriah Fisher, Amir Vanover, Jamieal Lyons; DT Dvon Ellies, Zane Durant, Hakeem Beamon, Coziah Izzard
Carter is making the move from linebacker to end, and he's such a good football player that pretty much everyone seems to think he'll automatically become a star at the new spot. I am a little more skeptical, however, believing it will take some time and adjusting in order to learn that position. He'll be going up against big, strong offensive tackles right at the point of attack, which is a very different thing than flying in from the linebacker spot.
Count me as one who believes Dennis-Sutton could become a star. He has all the talent in the world, and he's spent the past two years learning from very good players in Robinson and Isaac.
Fisher and Vanover have a lot of potential, but both still have a lot to prove.
The tackle spots look to be in good hands with the four guys listed above. The Lions don't have to play Michigan this year, so they won't have to worry about going up against those massive O-linemen and incredible running attack. That whole storyline from the past two years of getting a lot bigger on the D-line to be able to stop the Wolverines probably can now be reversed a bit.
• LINEBACKERS
Depth chart: Kobe King (R-Jr.), Dom DeLuca (R-Jr.), Tony Rojas (So.), Tyler Elsdon (Sr.), Keon Wylie (R-So.), Ta'Mere Robinson (R-Fr.), Kaveion Keys (R-Fr.)
This unit should be ... OK. I'm just not overly comfortable predicting more than that at this point, because I don't see a star in the group above. Rojas has a chance to be a star, but he's still very much unproven. King, to me, is relatively average. And nothing really jumps out about anyone else.
Wylie reportedly is injured and could miss significant time, so that likely will impact a number of decisions.
Losing Carter to the D-line hurts this group, no question.
And let me say this: I hold the linebacker unit at Penn State to an EXTREMELY high standard. This is Linebacker U, and the expectation needs to be that at least one or two guys will be superstars. So, when you see me write or say things like, "Curtis Jacobs was just average at Penn State" while everyone else in the media heaps praise on him, be aware that I'm comparing all of these dudes to the likes of guys I've covered since 2006, including Micah Parsons, Paul Posluszny, Sean Lee, Dan Connor and NaVorro Bowman.
Yeah, like I said, a high standard.
• CORNERBACKS
Depth chart: A.J. Harris (So.), Jalen Kimber (R-Sr.), Cam Miller (Jr.), Elliot Washington (So.)
Harris (Georgia) and Kimber (Florida) are transfer portal pickups with high ceilings, and they will need to hit the ground running by playing well right away. Miller will have a chance to start if one of those guys doesn't impress enough.
Look, Penn State is losing three key players in Kalen King, Dixon and Hardy. Personally, I thought Dixon had the best year of those three in 2023, and it's a shame he suffered an injury that apparently could threaten his pro career.
Regardless, I have concerns with this group. Harris and Kimber have lots of potential, but I need to see it on the field before I'll feel overly confident.
• SAFETIES
Depth chart: Kevin Winston Jr. (Jr.), Zakee Wheatley (R-Jr.), Jaylen Reed (Sr.) DaKaari Nelson (R-Fr.)
Gotta love the two starters, as Winston and Wheatley have a chance to be fantastic together. Reed will get playing time, as well. Beyond those there's a lot of inexperience.
