The sound doesn't lie:
B REY GIVES US THE LEAD! pic.twitter.com/Hp9EqHlN7R
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) June 19, 2024
The scoreboard doesn't, either: Bryan Reynolds' home run in the eighth inning, sent off with the sweetest of cracks reverberating throughout PNC Park on this sweltering Wednesday afternoon, accounted for all the offense that Mitch Keller and the Pirates would need in setting down the Reds, 1-0.
The standings keep it realest of all, of course:
MLB
Yeah, that ain't it. Sub-.500 ain't it. It'll seem sufficient to some, I suppose, amid this franchise's four decades of near-relentless failure. And it'll seem sufficient to others, I'll further suppose, in the context of that National League wild card pack. As in, whoopee, they're right there in the thick of it all. But again, that ain't it when it comes to the simple math of playoff pacing.
Since Major League Baseball expanded the playoff field to 12 teams a couple years ago:
• In 2022, the Phillies needed 87 wins to claim the National League's final wild-card berth, the other two wild-card teams needed 101 and 89, and the Cardinals needed 93 to win the Central.
• In 2023, the Marlins and Diamondbacks each needed 84 wins to share the National League's final wild-card berths, the other wild-card team needed 90, and the Brewers needed 92 to win the Central.
• In the American League, for the fullest context, the Rays needed 86 wins to claim the final wild-card berth in 2022, and the Blue Jays needed 89 in 2023.
Average win total for the final berth: 86.5
Average win total to take the Central: 92.5
Care to cite any other ways a team can make the playoffs? Anyone? Nah?
OK, so what that signifies for these Pirates at this potentially pivotal stage of this summer is that, independent of the rest of the pack, they need to start doing some significant winning. As in, actual streaks. Or even the occasional humble run. And what they're doing instead is winning a couple here, losing a couple there, beating some good teams, getting beaten by some bad teams ... basically poking and plodding along.
Two of three from the Reds?
Nice enough.
Same with the Rockies?
Eh.
Lose two of three to the Cardinals?
Ugh.
This, more than anything, has been the stamped-in-stone pattern to this season. No winning streaks longer than two whole games since early May, and none in the month before that one, either. There's never been any real roll.
Which means that, at 36-38, they'll now need to fire off a 51-37 record over the remainder of the schedule to exceed the aforementioned 86.5 wins. That'll require a .580 winning percentage, a pace that's been either reached or topped over a full season only seven times over the past half-century.
It'll be a bear, my friends. And a half.
And yet, I couldn't care less how this might come across, but I'm no less comfortable putting forth that it'd be borderline indefensible to not make the playoffs.
Because, of course, of this starting pitching.
The inescapable and arguably the harshest truth underpinning all of this is that the rotation's been dynamite from the opener in Miami onward. Borderline elite, I'd say, when weighing a ranking of sixth in innings logged at 405 1/3 and eighth in ERA at 3.55. And oozing with individual talent/potential, when weighing Keller, Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and don't-dare-forget Bailey Falter.
It's the best rotation we've witnessed in these parts since ... A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano, Gerrit Cole and the 2013-15 groups? Or Jason Schmidt, Francisco Cordova, Esteban Loaiza and the 1997 Freak Show? Or all the way back to Doug Drabek and the most recent division champs? Or is there any rival at all, considering the 143-year-old Pittsburgh Baseball Club's next truly great pitcher will, remarkably, be the first?
That's not casual hyperbole. There's a case to be made.
And that's what's being wasted way too often. And can't be wasted any further.
It's wonderful, sure, that Keller matched Hunter Greene strike for strike for seven superlative innings from each -- "You watched two guys go toe-to-toe today," as Derek Shelton would word it -- and more wonderful that Reynolds made it count and most wonderful that Colin Holderman and David Bednar closed it out. But this was the Pirates' third 1-0 victory of the season, their eighth when scoring three or fewer runs, and their 13th by a one-run margin.
Once more, that ain't it. They need streaks. They need, at the very least, clumps. And for that, they'll need offense that goes far beyond what they've done to date and all the sub-.200 types who keep populating Shelton's lineups.
The hitters, to their credit, seem to grasp this.
“I feel like we’ve been in a lot of tight games, but the pitchers have done a really good job of keeping them that way, especially all of our starters," Ke'Bryan Hayes told me. "But we know we've got to do our part, too."
“It’s been huge, what the starters have done to have our backs this whole series and this whole year since I’ve been here," Nick Gonzales told me. "The hitters, we’re just trying to get better every day with our approach and make sure we have our attack plan against the pitcher."
But grasping the problem's several steps from solving it.
Reynolds was asked how the Pirates can expect to keep taking series as they did this one, with six total runs.
"Just play good baseball," he replied flatly. "Hitting, pitching, defense ... need all three."
Don't have all three, though. And those streaks and/or clumps won't happen, I can't reiterate often enough, until Ben Cherington wakes himself from his perpetual 2020 state.
“We're gonna keep taking shots," the GM spoke on his weekly radio show over the weekend, referring to an ongoing pursuit of fringe relievers that's so far yielded a great big bucket of Ben Heller, Justin Bruihl and ERAs in the low 50s. "We’re going to keep taking shots on less-proven guys who have pitch qualities that we believe can translate to major-league success. Some of those are gonna be younger pitchers like Carmen Mlodzinski and Kyle Nicolas, who come up through the system. Some are gonna be external. And over time, we're gonna hit on enough of those and it's gonna add up to a good bullpen.”
Can't make this stuff up. He's openly, publicly conceding a target on "less-proven" players at a position of need. Even as he's openly, publicly conceding that "over time, we're gonna hit on enough of those."
I mean, what's the hurry, right? Everyone knows that games now don't matter as much mathematically as as those in August and September, yeah? Why not continue sifting through the trash bins, hoping for a solitary one of them to stick, and acknowledging that as the singular plan for improving a roster that needs to be improved at both middle relief and the middle of the lineup?
“We got to keep taking those shots,” Cherington would conclude. “That's the way we're gonna do it here.”
It shows.
• I'll be back at the ballpark for the series finale Sunday with the Rays. There'll be a Friday Insider and Site Stuff before then, as well.
• Thanks one final time for all the kind wishes regarding the vacation and, as ever, thanks for reading.
• Oh, also for listening, as well:
