INDIANAPOLIS -- To quote former Colts head coach Jim Mora, "Playoffs?! Are kidding me?"
The calendar hasn't even turned to October yet, and yes, a win Sunday afternoon against the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium should put the Steelers in playoff discussions. That's not an overreaction. History is just strongly on their side.
Regardless of whether you feel this year's team is a legitimate contender or not, a 4-0 start to the season would put the Steelers on a fast track to a playoff berth, perhaps even an AFC North division title. Of the teams in NFL history that have started 4-0, 84% of them went to the playoffs, 65% of them win their division and 12.6% have won the Super Bowl.
For the Steelers, their last 4-0 start came very recently, when the team started 11-0 in 2020. However, that last time before that was 1979, the last of the four Super Bowl wins in the 1970s. Since the Steelers became a franchise in 1933, they've only started a season 4-0 four times (1973, 1978, 1979, 2020). Amazingly enough, Bill Cowher never started a season 4-0. And now, Mike Tomlin has a chance to pull it off twice.
Why is this so important? No, it's not so writers such as myself or anyone can pump up the hype and try to get everyone to believe in this team as some sort of legitimate Super Bowl contender. Even if the Steelers turn in as complete a performance as imaginable and win Sunday, they've still got a ways to go before they reach such a status.
But, what a 4-0 start does is give a team that is a work in progress in certain areas time to correct things over a 14-week span to prepare for a playoff run. Listen, if a team starts 4-0, they can literally play .500-level ball and finish at worst 10-7. With the way things are shaking out in the AFC, that'll get you into the playoffs without a problem.
It's early, but this defense is already arguably the best in football. All they need to do is stay healthy, and they'll finish in the top five of a lot of categories. The only true concern on the defensive side of the ball is health. Should they avoid the injury bug, which they didn't do whatsoever a season ago, they'll be more than fine.
However, the offense is very much still a work in progress. There are signs of life, and maybe even signs of an eventual breakthrough. But heading into Sunday's action, the Steelers rank 24th in points per game, 24th in total offense, 12th in rushing offense, 29th in passing offense, 27th in yards per play, 18th in EPA per play, 28th in success rate, ninth in dropback EPA, 20th in dropback success rate, 24th in rush EPA and 30th in rush success rate.
That's not going to cut it.
However, the Steelers do rank seventh in third down conversion percentage at 43.2%, and they trail only the 49ers in time of possession. They're averaging 33:55 per game through three games, which is a marked improvement from the 29:28 they averaged a season ago.
Here's where the optimism comes in: This is the type of football the Steelers want to play. Obviously, they want to score more points. But, playing keep away from the other team, possessing the ball and constantly moving the chains is what this team wants to do. It not only wears out the opponent, but also keeps their elite defense fresh. That's a win-win situation.
This past week's win over the Chargers is a good example of this. Though they admittedly wanted to get off to a faster start, the Steelers loved the way the game unfolded. It was like a boxer dealing body blow after body blows over the course of a long fight, and then walloped on the opposition in the final rounds. They outgained the Chargers in the second half, 211 to -5.
A couple weeks ago, Najee Harris spoke of this team treating every game as a 15-round fight, and that game was a good representation of that.
"We knew it was going to be that type of a battle," Harris said this week at the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex. "It's going to be like that almost every week. That's something we expect. We're not wishing for a close game. We always prepare for that fight. It's the NFL. I think that was a perfect example (of it)."
That's all well and good. But, turning this offense into even an average group, or maybe something even better than that, could make winning games in mid and late January an actual possibility.
Of course, a key variable in the offense working things out is Justin Fields continuing to build off an encouraging performance over the first three weeks of the season. Fields is protecting the ball better than he ever has. According to Pro Football Focus, this is the first time in Fields' career he's gone the first three weeks of a season with zero turnover-worthy throws. He's also way better than his career marks in passer rating (95.3), completion percentage (73.3%) completion percentage above expectation (7.9%), time to throw (2.82 seconds). And, according to FantasyPoints.com, he's completing 72% of his throws against the blitz for a passer rating of 121.9, considerably better than the 57.8 completion percentage and 84.2 passer rating he had against the blitz in Chicago.
Now, it's about Fields taking the things he's doing well and combining it with his ability to kill defenses with his legs. Should he do that, the Steelers may even have their next quarterback.
More importantly for this season, a 4-0 start gives this offense valuable time to work everything out to become a formidable unit. Of course they're trying to win every week, but the pressure to put notches in the win column goes down when getting off to a scorching start.
A 4-0 start means nothing if it doesn't help them win at least one playoff game. A 4-0 start shouldn't be something fans want to see so those who put out power rankings or team hierarchies give the Steelers some level of respect. It's all about laying the foundation and setting the table for playing games into late January.
