I'm no fan of predictions, as I'm often sharing. With precious few exceptions, they're guesswork and little more. A waste of time.
Not so for projections.
Within the past week, the Pirates have now been hit with two poor projections for their 2025 season, the latest being the long-respected PECOTA model built by Baseball Prospectus, and before that the ZiPS model built by FanGraphs. Both are based on ice-cold, impartial and incredibly intricate formulas that, plain and simple, pour data into one end and wait for whatever emerges on the other.
Fourth place. That's what both say. ZiPS doesn't deliver a win total, but PECOTA does, and that emerged yesterday as 75.1 wins.
Or, as Ben Cherington might characterize it, even more than the 76 they won a year ago.
No forecasting science is perfect, of course. But again, I'll underscore the difference between predictions and projections. With the latter, it's an intake of information available at that time that promises nothing. If Cherington were stick-poked out of hibernation at some stage of this winter to sign a right fielder of some repute, that math would change.
Albeit barely. Further math shows Cherington could create a peak-career Roberto Clemente clone for right field, and the figurative needle still wouldn't touch .500.
That's why these projections matter.
See, everyone inside 115 Federal knows all of what's above. They live by analytics that aren't at all dissimilar from what delivers the independent results. As such, they know that the Pirates will have a lousy lineup from both the production and power perspectives, that their bullpen's lacking in every way, and that, barring Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller and Jared Jones making 50 starts each ... yeah, fourth place. Or fifth, if one has faith, as I do, in what Terry Francona can make happen in Cincinnati.
Everyone there knows this. Everyone up to Bob Nutting. And their reaction's to do not a damned thing to alter it.
Repeat: They have this math. They're aware of it. They, again including Nutting, have both the time and, yeah, the financial means to make a meaningful difference.
Not. A. Damned. Thing.
And that, my friends, is exactly who they are.
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THE ASYLUM
Dejan Kovacevic
9:19 am - 02.04.2025DowntownDK: When bad projections matter
I'm no fan of predictions, as I'm often sharing. With precious few exceptions, they're guesswork and little more. A waste of time.
Not so for projections.
Within the past week, the Pirates have now been hit with two poor projections for their 2025 season, the latest being the long-respected PECOTA model built by Baseball Prospectus, and before that the ZiPS model built by FanGraphs. Both are based on ice-cold, impartial and incredibly intricate formulas that, plain and simple, pour data into one end and wait for whatever emerges on the other.
Fourth place. That's what both say. ZiPS doesn't deliver a win total, but PECOTA does, and that emerged yesterday as 75.1 wins.
Or, as Ben Cherington might characterize it, even more than the 76 they won a year ago.
No forecasting science is perfect, of course. But again, I'll underscore the difference between predictions and projections. With the latter, it's an intake of information available at that time that promises nothing. If Cherington were stick-poked out of hibernation at some stage of this winter to sign a right fielder of some repute, that math would change.
Albeit barely. Further math shows Cherington could create a peak-career Roberto Clemente clone for right field, and the figurative needle still wouldn't touch .500.
That's why these projections matter.
See, everyone inside 115 Federal knows all of what's above. They live by analytics that aren't at all dissimilar from what delivers the independent results. As such, they know that the Pirates will have a lousy lineup from both the production and power perspectives, that their bullpen's lacking in every way, and that, barring Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller and Jared Jones making 50 starts each ... yeah, fourth place. Or fifth, if one has faith, as I do, in what Terry Francona can make happen in Cincinnati.
Everyone there knows this. Everyone up to Bob Nutting. And their reaction's to do not a damned thing to alter it.
Repeat: They have this math. They're aware of it. They, again including Nutting, have both the time and, yeah, the financial means to make a meaningful difference.
Not. A. Damned. Thing.
And that, my friends, is exactly who they are.
Want to participate in our comments?
Want an ad-free experience?
Become a member, and enjoy premium benefits! Make your voice heard on the Steelers, Penguins and Pirates, and hear right back from tens of thousands of fellow Pittsburgh sports fans worldwide! Plus, access all our premium content, including Dejan Kovacevic columns, Friday Insider, daily Live Qs with the staff, more! And yeah, that's right, no ads at all!
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