How both Bengals games could serve as safety valves
GETTY
Mike Tomlin, Thursday night in Cleveland.
The Steelers' remaining schedule is brutal, especially Weeks 15-17:
• Week 13: at Bengals (4-7) • Week 14: vs. Browns (3-8) • Week 15: at Eagles (9-2) • Week 16 (Saturday): at Ravens (8-4) • Week 17 (Wednesday): vs. Chiefs (10-1) • Week 18: vs. Bengals (4-7)
Prior to the season, I had two automatic losses in my predictions: Week 12 at Cleveland and Week 16 at Philadelphia. I went against my better judgement and picked the Steelers to win last week, and I won't make the same mistake again with Philadelphia, especially since this franchise hasn't won a game on the wrong side of the Commonwealth since 1965. The Steelers will be lucky to win even one game during that three-week span starting in Philadelphia.
That puts a lot of emphasis on the AFC North matchups, especially since the Steelers are clinging to a half-game lead in the division. Yes, they blew one against the Browns. But, let's be genuinely honest here: The Browns aren't a good team and it's a good bet the Steelers will play them much better next time around when it's not on a short week and on the road.
That leaves the two matchups against the Bengals. Don't let the 4-7 record fool you. Yes, Cincinnati's defense is terrible, but this is still a very dangerous offense, mainly because of Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase. They are arguably the most lethal quarterback-receiver duo in the league, capable of striking at any given moment and very often.
However, context of the matchup matters here. After all, if we're all going to talk about Mike Tomlin's dominance on Monday Night Football (21-3 record) and his polar opposite trend on Thursday Night Football (2-9), it's more than appropriate to look at what Tomlin's teams do after a Thursday night game, also dubbed a mini-bye. And, it's especially important since both matchups against the Bengals follow a mini-bye.
Under Tomlin, the Steelers are 13-6 with a +70 point differential in such games. And, he's had more success in recent seasons, going 9-2 in the most recent 11 games that follow a mini-bye. So, beating the Bengals this week and in the season finale are not out of the realm of possibility. And, those could be wins that help them clinch a playoff berth and maybe even win the division.
This week in particular, it's also important to look at the Bengals' side since they are coming off a bye. Under Zac Taylor, the Bengals are 3-2 following a bye but have won three straight with a staggering +40 point differential. He's faced the Steelers twice following a bye, winning in 2022 and losing in 2020. Joe Burrow played in both of those games, posting a 90.1 passer rating with a 56.96 completion percentage. That's slightly better than Burrow's 88.0 career passer rating against the Steelers, which is his fifth-worst against any opponent.
Taking all of this into consideration, these two matchups against the Bengals could ultimately decide the Steelers' season. Should the trend continue and the Steelers have success following a mini-bye, they could win as many as 11 games, assuming they also beat the Browns at home in Week 14 and lose all three games in Weeks 15-17. That may be just enough to clinch the AFC North, or at least clinch a decent wildcard spot. Falter, and the Steelers could once again be playing for one of the final playoff spots in the final weeks.
One final note here: I really want to emphasize that Tomlin's teams seem to do especially well when they have extra time to prepare for an opponent. Tomlin is 14-4 following a bye, and I've already pointed out his record on Monday nights. Mini-byes fall under this category of having extra time to prepare. Not only could these matchups against the Bengals be the most pivotal down the stretch, but I'm genuinely most curious to see if the trend continues.
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THE ASYLUM
Chris Halicke
4:16 pm - 11.25.2024South SideHow both Bengals games could serve as safety valves
GETTY
Mike Tomlin, Thursday night in Cleveland.
The Steelers' remaining schedule is brutal, especially Weeks 15-17:
• Week 13: at Bengals (4-7)
• Week 14: vs. Browns (3-8)
• Week 15: at Eagles (9-2)
• Week 16 (Saturday): at Ravens (8-4)
• Week 17 (Wednesday): vs. Chiefs (10-1)
• Week 18: vs. Bengals (4-7)
Prior to the season, I had two automatic losses in my predictions: Week 12 at Cleveland and Week 16 at Philadelphia. I went against my better judgement and picked the Steelers to win last week, and I won't make the same mistake again with Philadelphia, especially since this franchise hasn't won a game on the wrong side of the Commonwealth since 1965. The Steelers will be lucky to win even one game during that three-week span starting in Philadelphia.
That puts a lot of emphasis on the AFC North matchups, especially since the Steelers are clinging to a half-game lead in the division. Yes, they blew one against the Browns. But, let's be genuinely honest here: The Browns aren't a good team and it's a good bet the Steelers will play them much better next time around when it's not on a short week and on the road.
That leaves the two matchups against the Bengals. Don't let the 4-7 record fool you. Yes, Cincinnati's defense is terrible, but this is still a very dangerous offense, mainly because of Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase. They are arguably the most lethal quarterback-receiver duo in the league, capable of striking at any given moment and very often.
However, context of the matchup matters here. After all, if we're all going to talk about Mike Tomlin's dominance on Monday Night Football (21-3 record) and his polar opposite trend on Thursday Night Football (2-9), it's more than appropriate to look at what Tomlin's teams do after a Thursday night game, also dubbed a mini-bye. And, it's especially important since both matchups against the Bengals follow a mini-bye.
Under Tomlin, the Steelers are 13-6 with a +70 point differential in such games. And, he's had more success in recent seasons, going 9-2 in the most recent 11 games that follow a mini-bye. So, beating the Bengals this week and in the season finale are not out of the realm of possibility. And, those could be wins that help them clinch a playoff berth and maybe even win the division.
This week in particular, it's also important to look at the Bengals' side since they are coming off a bye. Under Zac Taylor, the Bengals are 3-2 following a bye but have won three straight with a staggering +40 point differential. He's faced the Steelers twice following a bye, winning in 2022 and losing in 2020. Joe Burrow played in both of those games, posting a 90.1 passer rating with a 56.96 completion percentage. That's slightly better than Burrow's 88.0 career passer rating against the Steelers, which is his fifth-worst against any opponent.
Taking all of this into consideration, these two matchups against the Bengals could ultimately decide the Steelers' season. Should the trend continue and the Steelers have success following a mini-bye, they could win as many as 11 games, assuming they also beat the Browns at home in Week 14 and lose all three games in Weeks 15-17. That may be just enough to clinch the AFC North, or at least clinch a decent wildcard spot. Falter, and the Steelers could once again be playing for one of the final playoff spots in the final weeks.
One final note here: I really want to emphasize that Tomlin's teams seem to do especially well when they have extra time to prepare for an opponent. Tomlin is 14-4 following a bye, and I've already pointed out his record on Monday nights. Mini-byes fall under this category of having extra time to prepare. Not only could these matchups against the Bengals be the most pivotal down the stretch, but I'm genuinely most curious to see if the trend continues.
Want to participate in our comments?
Want an ad-free experience?
Become a member, and enjoy premium benefits! Make your voice heard on the Steelers, Penguins and Pirates, and hear right back from tens of thousands of fellow Pittsburgh sports fans worldwide! Plus, access all our premium content, including Dejan Kovacevic columns, Friday Insider, daily Live Qs with the staff, more! And yeah, that's right, no ads at all!
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