Could Pirates effectively cover rotation injuries? taken in Bradenton, Fla. (Courtesy of StepOutside.org)

CLAY HOLMES - JOHN PERROTTO / DKPS

BRADENTON, Fla. -- The Pirates have made it very clear their hope of reaching the postseason rests on their pitching staff, particularly the top four of the starting rotation.

In fact, Clint Hurdle referred to the foursome of Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove and Chris Archer as the “Core Four” following Tuesday’s spring training workout at Pirate City. That is heady stuff for a group that has won 123 games in the major leagues, 57 by Archer.

It is understandable why the Pirates are so excited about the “Core Four.” Archer is a two-time All-Star and the other three all appear to still have upside.

The Pirates are also hopeful a solid No. 5 starter will shake out from the Grapefruit League competition among Steven Brault, Nick Kingham and Jordan Lyles. Exhibition play begins Saturday and those three will also see more innings in major-league games during the early part of the schedule while the “Core Four” will pitch in minor-league camp games.

But what if one of the Pirates’ front four suffers an injury? What if two of them were on the injured list at the same time?

Do the Pirates have the depth to survive?

Neal Huntington answered in the affirmative when I asked him at the start of spring training last week.

Hurdle echoed that sentiment, even though the Pirates have only one pitcher – Mitch Keller – among DKPittsburghSports.com's ranking of the organization's top 10 prospects.

“We have continued to build more pitching depth in the organization each year and that is by design,” Hurdle said. “We not only feel good about our pitchers at the major-league level but good about those coming up behind them.”

However, the quality of pitchers slated to begin the season in Indianapolis’ rotation is questionable beyond Keller. He is ranked No. 18 by Baseball Prospectus, No. 19 by MLB.com and No. 26 by Baseball America.

Keller figures to be joined in Indy by Clay Holmes, J.T. Brubaker, Aaron Slegers and Rookie Davis. All have potential but, except for Brubaker and Davis, none profile as more than a No. 5 starter in the eyes of various talent evaluators I spoke to around the major leagues in recent days. Most see No. 4 as the ceiling for both.

Brault could also end up in the rotation at Indianapolis despite being the International League Pitcher of the Year there two years ago because he has one minor-league option remaining. On the other hand, Kingham is out of options and would have to clear waivers to be sent to the minors and Lyles is on a guaranteed one-year contract worth $2.05 million.

“They have a bunch of guys who could come up and fill in for a couple of starts but none I’d truly feel comfortable slotting into the backend of the rotation on a permanent basis,” a scout from a National League team said. “Everyone likes Keller, but the other guys are just guys, not difference makers.”

Keller has moved through the farm system rather quickly considering he is in an organization that is very deliberate in promoting prospects. He reached Triple-A last season as a 22-year-old, four years after being the Pirates’ second-round draft pick following his senior year of high school in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

Keller is 29-17 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 87 minor-league games.

“He’s the real deal,” the NL scout said. “He not only has great stuff, but he knows how to pitch and he has a lot of (intestinal fortitude).”

Holmes got his first chance in the major leagues last season and went 1-3 with a 6.84 ERA and 2.01 WHIP in 11 games, including four starts. He pitched six scoreless innings to beat the Brewers on July 14 at PNC Park but worked a combined nine innings in his other three starts.

Most teams felt Holmes was solid in his commitment to Auburn following his senior season at Slocumb (Ala.) High School, where he was class valedictorian in 2011. However, the Pirates drafted him in the ninth round and swayed him to pro ball with a $1.2-million signing bonus.

In six minor-league seasons, the 25-year-old is 39-28 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He believes he can carry that success over to the major leagues if he gets a second chance.

“It was a tough adjustment last year because I wasn’t used to making spot starts but I learned a lot from being up in the big leagues,” Holmes told me. “I learned how to find a routine that should enable me to stay sharp while pitching on more of an irregular schedule. I’ll be better prepared the next time.”

Brubaker was the organization’s minor-league pitcher of the year last season when he was a combined 10-6 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 28 starts for Indianapolis and Double-A Altoona. That continued a rise in the organization that began with a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League following the 2017 season.

Drafted in the sixth round in 2015 from the University of Akron, Brubaker throws a fastball that hits 96 mph and a plus slider, though his changeup is inconsistent. He isn’t highly regarded by many analysts who rank prospects, but the Pirates feel his career has turned a corner, and so does a scout who watches him regularly.

“Out of the group of guys they’ll have at Indy, beside Keller, this is the one guy I like,” said the scout, who works for an American League team. “He’s aggressive. He’s always on the attack and his stuff is better than people give him credit for.”

The Pirates claimed the 6-foot-10 Slegers off waivers from the Twins in January after he went 1-2 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in eight games with Minnesota over the last two years. However, he has gone 48-36 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 121 minor-league games over six seasons. I profiled Slegers in this story.

Signed to a minor-league contract Monday as a free agent, Davis is intriguing, despite a rocky major-league debut with the Reds in 2017 when he was 1-2 with an 8.63 ERA and 2.16 WHIP. He was limited to nine minor-league games last year after recovering from hip surgery.

At 6-foot-5 and 255 pounds, Davis looks the part of a power pitcher and his fastball tops off at 97 mph. He also sinks the fastball and complements it with a slider that hit 90 mph and a changeup.

“He’s a big, physical pitcher and we’re glad he signed with us,” Hurdle said. “We’re excited to get a good look at him. We feel there is something there.”

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