After finishing with the worst record in baseball in 2020 and with multiple players only a couple years away from reaching free agency, the Pirates are heading into this offseason as a pretty clear-cut seller. While the front office has hesitated to call what they are doing a rebuild, it’s obvious that they are focusing on the future.
During the trade deadline, Ben Cherington made just about everyone available, but only completed one minor deal, flipping Jarrod Dyson for international spending room. This winter is shaping up to be more busy, with Joe Musgrove and Adam Frazier being the most likely to be dealt.
At this time last year, I penned a Mound Visit examining what Starling Marte’s trade value would be using surplus value and future value, and came pretty close to nailing it. I touched on surplus value in a recent Mound Visit, but just for a quick refresher, it is the difference between how much value a player provides in WAR against how much they are paid. Future value is a projection of how much surplus value similarly rated prospects produce.
Kevin Creagh and Steve DiMicelli of the now defunct The Point of Pittsburgh have the best tool for figuring out how much future value prospects in Baseball America’s top 100 tend to produce. Craig Edwards of FanGraphs created a handy tool for calculating the value of those outside the top 100.
Today, I want to look at Frazier’s trade value and the market for second basemen this offseason. Could the Pirates’ rebuild get a shot in the arm with a top 100 prospect for him?
Frazier struggled throughout most of the abbreviated season but did end his year on a bit of a hot streak, raising his season slash line to .230/.297/.364 with seven home runs and 23 RBIs. He still finished with a respectable 0.6 fWAR, thanks in large part to his fielding ability. For the second year in a row, he was the runner up for the Gold Glove and led all second basemen in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric (8).
Frazier is turning 29 next month, and by this point, there’s a book on him. He’s an average, albeit streaky, hitter with a career 100 wRC+. He doesn’t make highlight reel plays in the field, but he has range and is one of the better fiedlers at his position. All told, he’s a fine player and a reliable starter. Even after a bit of a down year, he will draw trade interest.
He won’t be the only option though. This free agent class has plenty of good second base options. DJ LeMahieu is at the head of it, finishing in the top-four in MVP voting each of the last two years. Kolten Wong and Tommy La Stella represent that second tier, with both in position to command a multi-year deal with an average salary in the ballpark of $10 million. César Hernández is one of the best fielders at the position and had a .355 on-base percentage. Then there are the Jonathans: Villar and Schoop. Villar had a down year in 2020, but he is a year removed from a four win season. Both of them and Jurickson Profar are fine backup options for a team that misses out on one of the top guys or need a fill-in.
And that’s just the free agent market. Those are the guys teams could have for just writing a check. Acquiring Frazier would cost prospects.
That said, Frazier has two key selling points in his favor. The first is his versatility, giving teams the option of using him in the outfield if they need to. The second is he is very affordable. It’s hard to pencil in what his 2021 salary will be, with Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors giving three different projections ranging from $3.3-$5.2 million. That high end projection seems unlikely though, as it extrapolates all counting stats to 162-game totals.
It’s more likely that Frazier will make about $3.5 million in arbitration this season, which would put him around a $6-7 million payday in 2021. For simple math, let’s say he makes $10 million over these next two years. Unless a team wants to gamble and pick up a leftover second baseman in February each of the next two winters, they won’t get an above average second baseman at a cheaper rate. That could have a little more weight this season since everyone is budget conscious.
Ok, enough beating around the bush. How much trade value does he have?
The projection tool ZiPS projects he will be a 1.9 fWAR player in 2021 and a 1.7 fWAR player in 2022. We’ll round down and say the Pirates are selling 3.5 WAR worth of player.
Before COVID-19, the generally accepted going rate for a free agent was $9 million per WAR. If Frazier produced 3.5 WAR over two years, that would be $31.5 million in total value. Minus his $10 million in salary, that’s $21.5 million in surplus value. That could have brought back a player towards the back end of Baseball America’s top 100 prospect list.
But players won’t get $9 million per WAR this offseason, and there’s no real way to gage the market until more players start signing. So let’s plus in two other values. At $7 million per WAR -- roughly what a WAR was worth in 2013 -- that would be $24.5 million in total value and a surplus value of $14.5 million. At $4.5 million -- or half the normal going rate -- that’s roughly $16 million total value, $6 million in surplus value. It seems safe to say this is the most optimistic and pessimistic outcomes for his market. Considering the free agents available, I’m more inclined to say it’s in that $6-10 million range.
What does that mean in terms of players? Let’s map out two trade offers of teams who could be looking for second base help, one at $7 million per WAR and another at $4.5 million.
The more optimistic package: Adam Frazier to the Padres for LHP Adrian Morejon
The Pirates have some highly-regarded pitching prospects in the lower levels of the farm system, but very little in the way of major-league ready pitching. Morejon has struggled a bit in his first tastes of the majors, but he has three plus pitches and was ranked as the 89th best prospect before he shed his rookie status this season. The Padres are losing Profar, and while they could put Jake Cronenworth at second, they value his flexibility. Frazier can bounce around the field as well, giving the Padres plenty of depth.
I don’t see this trade happening, but I wanted to use an example of a pitcher in that top 76-100 range, and this seemed the least outlandish. This could be reexamined when Baseball America updates their list again.
The more pessimistic package: Adam Frazier to the Athletics for RHP Tyler Baum and C Jonah Heim
FanGraphs’ player ratings grade this package at about $5 million in future value currently, a little lower than the floor we set for Frazier’s value. Heim is a major-league ready catcher prospect who could slide in and learn from Jacob Stallings in 2021. He has a good glove and can hold his own with the bat. His stock has really risen the past few years, and the Pirates are in desperate need of a catching prospect at any level. Baum was selected in the second-round of the 2019 draft and could be either a backend starter or a reliever who relies on his plus curveball.
The Athletics were interested in Frazier last offseason and are losing La Stella and Marcus Semien to free agency. They’ll be a team to watch as Frazier’s market develops.
