The dismantling of the Pirates’ roster continues.
Over the course of exactly one month, the Pirates have traded Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell and Joe Musgrove, three of the faces of the franchise, for 11 prospects.
That includes the Taillon trade to the Yankees Sunday, which netted four prospects: Right-handed pitchers Miguel Yajure and Roansy Contreras, infielder Maikol Escotto and outfielder Canaan Smith.
"We're excited about the four players we've added today from the Yankees,” Ben Cherington said during a Zoom call Sunday. “It's a combination of different kinds of players."
To generalize, this trade brought back two different types of players: Right-handers who are already on the 40-man roster, and lower-level position players with power potential. While the Pirates have acquired a right-handed pitcher in every trade this offseason – not to mention the two they got in the Rule 5 draft – the later is a bit of a change of pace.
Since they are going to appear in the Majors first, let’s first talk about the pitchers.
Baseball America ranked Yajure as the Yankees’ 7th-best prospect in their 2021 update, and his stock has picked up traction over the past few years. He has a five pitch mix – a four-seamer that sits in the lower 90s, a high-spin curveball, another high-spin offering in a cutter, a slider and a changeup.
He made his first three appearances in the Majors last year, totaling seven innings. In that brief time, he gave a sample of his stuff, with the curve being perhaps the most intriguing. Not only did it average 2,700 RPM, which is in the top 25% of MLB pitchers, its spin mirrored the four-seamer.
That type of combo can lead to swings like this:
The cutter also gets a decent amount of movement, running away from right-handed hitters:
He also mixes in a slider, which has more run but not a lot of vertical movement. The cutter offers more speed, more spin and a similar spin angle to his four-seamer. There’s obviously merit to keeping the slider, but the cutter looks more practical and has been the pitch he has relied on more.
Mechanically, he has a nice, simple motion that’s actually very similar to Taillon’s reworked delivery. His glove is belt-high, he takes his arm straight back and then releases. There really isn’t any wasted motion in his arm action.
Yajure missed all of the 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery, and he’s had this simplified motion since at least his return in 2018. Here he is from the 2018 season:
The only change with his delivery since then is it seems like he goes through his motions a little quicker now, though that could just be because of the jitters of pitching in the Majors for the first time.
Looking at Yajure’s repertoire, there’s nothing here that is other-worldly, but there’s potential for him to have two or three above average pitches, especially with his offspeed and breaking stuff. There’s potential for him to be a middle of the rotation arm. He’ll certainly get a chance to earn a rotation spot this spring, and with where most of the Pirates’ pitching prospects are, he has a good window of time to establish himself before that wave reaches the majors.
While Yajure has seen his value rise the last couple years, Contreras’ has dipped a bit. Baseball America ranked him as the top pitching prospect out of the Dominican for the 2016 international signing period, and while he hasn’t lived up to such lofty expectations, he has pitched well in professional ball and looks like a legitimate prospect. If he didn't, the Yankees wouldn’t have added him to the roster this winter to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.
“[He] likely needs some more development time, but he's someone who we're really encouraged by,” Cherington said. “Think he has a chance to be a starting pitcher and be in that next wave of pitching depth.”
Contreras hasn’t pitched above class A, and while he did take part in the Yankees’ instructional league, he was not invited to the team’s alternate training site during the regular season. That would seemingly put his development a little behind someone like Max Kranick, who also hasn’t pitched above class A but was in Altoona all season. As a result, his starting point for 2021 is up in the air. He’ll certainly get an invitation to MLB spring training since he is on the roster, but it doesn’t seem as certain that he will immediately go to AAA. If he does go straight to Indianapolis, he should be there longer than most pitchers, maybe for all of 2021.
Repertoire wise, he features a fastball that sits in the mid-90s but can creep up to 96 or 97 mph and has the spin to play up in the zone, a slider that FanGraphs tracks at about 2,500 RPM – which is better than two-thirds of Major Leaguers, so not bad for a 21-year-old – and a changeup with some sink. In 2019 he really worked on how the ball left his hand with the breaking and offspeed pitches, so those two took a bigger step in development. FanGraphs’ most recent scouting report grades all his pitches as 50-grade with a potential for 55, which translates to three average MLB pitches, with some room for growth. He gets his fair share of strikeouts and walks, but will need to rely on keeping fly balls in the ballpark to be effective.
Like Yajure, he has a very simple motion, with all of his momentum going towards home plate:
There’s a lot to like about Contreras, even if he doesn’t turn out to be the next big pitcher out of the Dominican like he was envisioned to be years ago. A backend starter seems like a fair projection, though if he doesn’t stick in the rotation, he could profile well as a reliever. He’s a high floor, medium-high ceiling 21-year-old whose only real risk is that he needs to spend a year on the 40-man roster before he is really ready for the Show.
Onto the hitters. At this time last year, before the pandemic cancelled the minor-league season, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen listed both Smith and Escotto as players who could crack his top 100 prospect list in 2021. It’s hard to see either making that jump before the preseason top 100 lists come out over the coming weeks, but it’s something worth noting. If they perform this season, then don’t be shocked if they flirt with top 100 spots at this time next year. They both also have more raw power than we've seen from the other players Cherington has traded for thus far.
Smith, 21, was one of the best hitters of the South Atlantic League in 2019, homering 11 times with 32 doubles and an impressive .307/.405/.465 slash line. FanGraphs tracked his max exit velocity at 109 mph in 2019 (they did not have an average), which is rare air for a hitter his age. The only other Pirates prospects who reached that level of exit velo are Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Mason Martin.
The main concerns with his offensive profile are that he does whiff more than usual – a setback for many power hitters, and it’s hardly an abhorrent amount – and that he has a high ground ball rate. Half of his batted balls in 2019 were on the ground, and that could become very problematic as he rises through the system.
It looks like he’s addressed this though. During spring training in 2019, his hands were really high:
As the season progressed, they gradually got lower:
It’s not going to be a one-step fix for everyone, but for those of you who remember the phrase “fly ball revolution,” many hitters benefited from lowering their hands. Jose Bautista, Justin Turner, Mookie Betts. Lowering the hands while in the stance not only cuts down on the distance needed to get through the zone, it also changes the angle. He won’t be coming down on the ball as often, which means less grounders.
Just so not to focus solely on the hands, his lower half looks good. He doesn’t lunge at the ball and drives towards the ball. He has a big leg kick that might be cut down a bit as he gets to the upper-levels of the system, but that’s a concern for another day at worst.
Smith was rated by Baseball America as the “Best Hitter for Average” and as having the “Best Strike Zone Discipline” in the Yankees’ farm system at the time of the trade, and he pairs that with legitimate pop. His glove, arm and speed are all passable. If this guy rises through the system and takes that next step to being a legitimate prospect, he is going to hit his way there.
“[He has a] combination of plate disciple and just really good quality contact,” Cherington said. “We really felt like he was one of the better hitters in the South Atlantic League a couple years ago, and again, now had another year of physical growth. Looking forward to working with him.”
I was told that Escotto is very high thought of in the organization, even if he wasn’t terribly high on the Yankees’ prospect list. Cherington even mentioned that the Pirates have scouts who liked him back before he signed in 2018. Those concerns are mostly because he hasn’t had a lot of time to actually play professional ball yet. While he absolutely crushed DSL pitching the following year, he has yet to make it stateside. That will obviously change in 2021, and he’s most likely destined for Bradenton to get started in pro ball.
When he finally does take the field in America, he’s definitely someone to watch. There aren’t too many middle infielders or 18-year-olds who have his type of raw power, so even though growing pains are expected, that potential is extremely enticing. He’s grown into his 5-foot-11 frame and appears to be at the point where he’s ready to go.
Looking at his swing, it’s pretty straightforward. Hands are lower, no real leg kick, hands get through the zone quickly:
If I had to nitpick, I’m not crazy about how his back leg moves, but I can’t say for certain this is how his mechanics always are. This might have just been not his best swing. I've also seen video of him with a less open stance and taking a shorter stride towards the pitcher.
He’s at shortstop right now and will be given the chance to stick there. He has the arm to move over to third and second is also an option, too. Longenhagen said the Pirates basically added the equivalent of a second-round high school shortstop draft pick.
Like Contreras, it looks like the biggest risk here is the Pirates will have to add him to the roster sooner than they probably will want to if they choose to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. That decision won’t have to be made until November 2022, so he’s got two full seasons to prove himself in America first. If the Pirates do protect him at that time, he will probably spend a good chunk of that 2023 season still in the minors. Unless he hits the ground running in 2021, he probably won’t be in the MLB mix until 2024.
To address the elephant in the room, even though the Musgrove trade brought back what looks like a better headliner prospect in Hudson Head and more players, this really looks like the better package of players. It had to be for the Pirates to trade Taillon now rather than let him pitch for half the season, regain value and then trade him at the deadline. They were very willing to take that risk, but the Yankees needed a legitimate starter and had very little to spend before hitting the luxury tax. Taillon comes with major health risks, but he was virtually their only option who checked the other two boxes.
In return, the Pirates get two pitching prospects who may not have as high a ceiling as Taillon, but they have unexplored upside with a high floor. It wouldn’t be shocking if these two are both part of the 2022 rotation. As for the hitters, there is a far higher chance these two fizzle out, but if they hit, they could be legitimate prospects in a year’s time. It’s a rare combination of high upside and safe players, so while the Pirates didn’t get a top 100 prospect again, they made another calculated bet on their player development and staff.
And like the other big trades Cherington has made, that development is going to ultimately determine if this was just a teardown or the first real steps of a rebuild.
