On Tuesday, the occasion of the Pirates' 136th home opener, they will officially announce the signing of Ke’Bryan Hayes to an eight-year, $70 million contract, the largest deal in the franchise’s history.
It was a couple years in the making, with talks happening on and off from 2020 until this past Thursday. For Hayes, he was always open to a long-term deal because he believes in what the Pirates are building and wants to be along for the long haul.
"From the get-go when I got drafted, that was one of my main goals, to debut with the team that drafted me and play my whole career there,” Hayes said Thursday in St. Louis.
It’s also injury insurance for the 25-year-old third baseman. Last year’s wrist sprain lingered longer than Hayes initially let on, and while it turned out to be nothing, his removal from Thursday’s opening with a forearm and thumb cramp had everyone holding their breath for a few innings.
If you were concerned about the wrist or the forearm or the ankle from spring, Hayes has come out swinging early this season, recording three hits with an exit velocity of 105 mph. Last year he had just 26 such hits over a full season, and never three over a two-game span. “Small sample size” is going to be a recurring theme this first month, but that’s an encouraging sign out of the gate.
I’m playing up the injury angle early because it’s quite possibly the only way Hayes’ contract doesn’t work out for the Pirates. It’s the largest in franchise history, and it could also wind up being the best.
Anyone who watched Hayes the last two years knows he has offensive potential. That first month in the majors in 2020 was one of the greatest debuts for any player, and even if his contact point can get deep, he hits the ball hard. If he starts pulling fly balls and line drives, he could be a plus hitter and elevate himself to All-Star status.
If that doesn’t happen, Hayes still is a high floor player because of his defense. Last year, Baseball Reference valued him at 2.4 WAR and 1.0 wins above average despite missing a third of the season and finishing with an OPS+ of 87, 13 percent lower than the league average. Why? Because he can do stuff like this:
The forecasting tool ZiPS projects that over the next three years, including 2022, Hayes will play in 330 games, record an OPS of about a league average .720 and still be worth 7 WAR. That’s basically his 2021 season times three, which is an understandable projection because ZiPS has just that one full season to work from.
But with how Hayes’ contract is structured, it spreads out the risk that even if he gets hurt, it will never be that much of a financial burden to the club. Hayes will receive $10 million in 2022 and 2023, then $7 million a year from 2024-2027, $8 million in 2028-2029 and then either a $12 million club option or $6 million buyout in 2030.
This is an unprecedented pre-arb deal, with the largest money years coming up front. That’s beneficial to both sides. The Pirates can easily tack on an extra $9-$10 million on this year’s salary and keep Hayes at a lower rate late in the contract. Hayes gets the benefit of getting more money upfront, because inflation means that a 2022 dollar is more valuable than a 2029 dollar.
It also means that towards the end of that contract, all Hayes has to do is be a 1 WAR player for the Pirates to be getting better value than what they would have gotten for that money on the open market. Currently, 1 WAR is valued at $9 million on the open market. That price will go up as the decade goes on, but if Hayes is worth about 2 WAR each season, the Pirates would have gotten twice the production that a similar contract would have fetched on the open market. If he produces more than that, it’s a huge payoff for the team.
In 2020, I wrote about how the Pirates made a $100 million mistake in terms of surplus value in the Chris Archer trade. If Hayes breaks out offensively, this could be a $100+ million steal for the club.
His elite defense creates a solid floor for now to build up his surplus value. That won’t always be the case, though. At some point over the life of this contract, he’s going to decline in the field and have to rely more on the bat.
According to research done by Sports Info Solutions, a defender’s peak year is usually his age 26 season. That would be next year for Hayes. There is normally a more substantial decline once a player hits 30.
That goes for the hot corner, too. According to Stathead, since 1900, there have been 30 seasons where a third baseman aged 30 or over has been worth at least 2 defensive WAR (dWAR). Five of those seasons are by the iconic Brooks Robinson, a couple are from future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre, and Buddy and David Bell each had a pair. In reality, only 20 different third baseman have ever had an elite season of defense at third once they turned 30.
But if you watch Hayes play, you know he’s no ordinary fielder. Last year, he was worth 1.8 defensive dWAR as a rookie. In baseball history, only five other rookie third basemen can top that. Among them, Nolan Arenado just completed his age 30 season and won another Gold Glove, and Ray Stager did not play into his 30s.
So that leaves Chris Sabo, Ron Cey and Eddie Foster as three players to pull from as precedent for Hayes. Cey and Foster both continued to do well into their 30s, both being worth 3.6 dWAR from ages 30-34. Sabo, on the other hand, battled injuries and was -1.7 dWAR at those same ages. There’s the injury disclaimer again.
Sports Info Solutions gives an example that if a player was worth five defensive runs saved when they were 25 would project to be worth about 3 DRS at age 30 and 0 at age 34. Hayes was worth 16 DRS last year. That curve will probably be a bit steeper once he starts to decline, but that’s only because he’s coming from a higher high. That model would still have him as a plus defender through the length of the contract. Models aren’t actual results, but it’s a good projection when you’re looking eight years into the future.
Hayes wanted to be a Pirate for the long-term, and he’ll get to be one. With this deal, he’s got an outside chance of becoming one of, if not the greatest, third basemen in franchise history. (He’s already 14th all-time in WAR at the position.) He’ll be worth the money early in his contract with his defense alone. That will probably taper off once he’s in his 30s, but assuming he stays upright, he’s in a good position to contribute for a long time, regardless of if his sky high exit velos don’t result in big major-league results.
