CORAL GABLES, Fla. -- Fitting that it will be No. 16 Miami and No. 25 Pitt as the two to vie for the top seed in the ACC and, by the end of Saturday's 6 p.m. tip-off in Coral Gables, could share the regular-season ACC championship.
Why? Because not only are the teams similar in makeup; neither were expected to be in this position in the first place.
Miami coach Jim Larrañaga is certainly aware of what Pitt brings to South Beach, as the teams dueled to a hot finish Jan. 28 in the first matchup inside the Petersen Events Center. Pitt closed on an 11-0 run to earn a 71-68 win over the Hurricanes and notch another signature win for its NCAA Tournament resume.
But, as Larrañaga illustrates -- correctly -- the stakes on Saturday's game are unforeseen from a basketball standpoint.
"I think it was just a great game," Larrañaga said of the January meeting during Friday's pre-practice availability. "There were really no surprises. Both teams played, really, like we expected, and it came down to the last possession. We felt like we had an excellent opportunity to win that game. We were disappointed we didn't win, but we left there knowing that Pitt's a very good basketball team and they're going to be right there until the bitter end vying for the league title, and sure enough, I don't think anybody expected Miami and Pitt to be playing for the championship tomorrow. Duke and Carolina, maybe even Virginia, but not Pitt and Miami. We're very, very happy where we are. I'm sure Jeff Capel is, too."
The winner of the Pitt-Miami game will earn the No. 1 seed and at least a share of the regular-season ACC championship. If Virginia loses to Louisville Saturday, then the winner of Pitt-Miami earns the regular-season title outright.
A full breakdown of seeding scenarios for the ACC Tournament can be found HERE.
"They're a great, physical team," Miami guard Jordan Miller said. "They have a lot of size. I feel like last time we played them -- obviously all credit to Pittsburgh, they're a great team and we're about to play them for the (regular-season) championship -- but we had a lot of mistakes that we could have controlled. I believe we had a double-digit lead with under two minutes or under a minute left to go, Obviously that was earlier in the season and teams get better or they get worse, depending on whoever it is, but I feel like if we can limit the mistakes we make ourselves -- turnovers and fouling are a big factor -- I think we have a pretty good shot at coming out victorious. Whatever team plays the hardest is probably going to come out with the victory."
Pitt shot just 40% from the field and made 9 of 22 3-pointers in the first meeting against Miami. The Panthers made 10 of 12 free throws and out-rebounded the Hurricanes 39-30, including a 12-1 margin on the offensive glass.
"I just think they have weapons all around," Miller said. "One through five can score the ball. They have the size. They're just a very good overall team. They don't have any key weaknesses. It's going to be a battle, it's going to be a war -- I always refer to these conference games as a war -- and this game's important. There's a championship on the line, so whoever comes out and plays the hardest, wants it more is going to be victorious."
Pitt and Miami each are offensive-first teams. According to KenPom's advanced analytics, Miami and Pitt are first and second among ACC teams, respectively, in adjusted offensive efficiency, or points per 100 possessions. Miami is tied for 11th nationally at a 119.0 AdjO, while Pitt is 32nd nationally with a 114.9 AdjO.
In terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, or points allowed per 100 possessions, Pitt is seventh in the ACC and tied for 111th nationally at 102.7, while Miami is eighth in the ACC and tied for 120th nationally at 103.3.
"You know, quite frankly, the teams are very similar," Larrañaga said. "Offensively we're both very efficient, field goal percentage. Defensively we're both -- in the KenPom rankings in defensive efficiency we're both a little bit over 100, so not great but not terrible, either. Both teams oftentimes are playing smaller. They have more big guys. They have a host of big guys at the center position, but beyond that, they play a group similar to our size.
"The matchups are very good by both teams. Both teams are, again, very good offensively and work very hard defensively. They are very, very physical, and we've got to do a great job of handling their physicality and getting to the foul line."
Miami is 15-1 at the Watsco Center and will enjoy a reported sold-out venue and a "blackout" game from its student section. The Hurricanes have not won a regular-season ACC title since 2013.
Pitt has not won a regular-season ACC title since it joined the league. The Panthers could have clinched at least a share Wednesday, if not for a cold shooing night and a lackluster effort through the first 30 minutes which Notre Dame pounced on Wednesday in South Bend, Ind.
But, as we saw in Pitt's first meeting against Miami -- and even a bit towards the end of the Notre Dame game -- this Pitt team cannot be assumed to just have a bad night with its shooting.
"They can be down by 10 and next thing you know they hit three 3s in a row, and they can come back any time in the game," Miami guard Isaiah Wong said. "Just the transition, them having their run and our runs, it's going to be a tough game tomorrow."
But, Pitt is playing for just a little more than the Hurricanes, the latter of which are guaranteed a double bye in the ACC Tournament. Pitt is not assured a double bye yet, and there is some rectifying to do after dropping Wednesday's game at Notre Dame.
"Whenever you take over a program, the status of the program has a lot to do with how quickly you can build it," Larrañaga said. "I think when coach Capel took over the Pitt program they were at the bottom of their league. In fact, if I remember correctly they hadn't even won a single conference game that previous year. It takes time to implement your culture, your offensive and defensive philosophy, and also your ability to recruit the players that would fit in with what you want to do. I think he's taken it step-by-step.
"He was an outstanding player, so he's got a good feel for players. He was an outstanding assistant coach at Duke and has had head-coaching experience. Coach Capel and I faced each other when he was at VCU and I was at George Mason. He has a lot of experience of knowing how to built a program, and he's done that quite successfully this year."
