The Pirates have had the opportunity to start the MLB Draft with a top-five selection over the past three years and it brought them the likes of Paul Skenes, Termarr Johnson and Henry Davis. But that all changes Sunday as they are slotted to make their first overall selection outside the top five since drafting Nick Gonzales at No. 7 in 2020.
Differently from last year, the Pirates will have to adjust their pick accordingly as players are drafted. In 2021 and 2023, when they picked Davis and Skenes, respectively, the Pirates had their pick of the litter. Now it will be a waiting game, but Ben Cherington is committed to picking the best players available.
"Let's get the most talent we can with the picks we have," Cherington told reporters late last week.
The Pirates used 14 of their 21 picks on pitchers last year and drafted nine straight at one point. With the young pitching talent the Pirates have built up -- four of their top five and 11 of their top 30 prospects are pitchers -- they may look to build up their prospect pool elsewhere. With Cherington dead set on drafting the best possible player though, anything is possible.
While there are still unknowns heading into the first day of the draft, here's what we do know.
HOW DOES THE MLB DRAFT WORK
Teams are assigned an amount of money each year that they can spend on that year's draft class, which is called a bonus pool. Each pick is assigned a slot value, and each draft pick's slot value through the first 10 rounds amounts to the team's total bonus pool. However, if a player is picked and does not sign, that money can't be used elsewhere.
Teams and players will negotiate and they often land on a number that is different from the slot value. For example, the No. 1 pick in 2023 had a slot value of $9,721,000 and Skenes signed for $9,200,000. However, the Pirates saved $521,000 in bonus pool money that they were able to use elsewhere. Mitch Jebb was selected at No. 42, which had a slot value of $2,045,900, and he signed for $1,647,500.
Teams often will put that saved money toward signing a high school player to get him to forego a college commitment. For example, the 67th pick last year had a slot value of $1,128,200, but the Pirates signed Zander Mueth, for $1,797,500. Mueth was drafted out of Belleville High School East in Illinois, so instead of heading to college, Mueth signed for $669,300 over his slot value.
After the 10th round, teams can spend a max of $150,000 to sign a draft pick without a penalty. If teams sign a pick for more than $150,000, that extra amount is deducted from the bonus pool. Teams do have wiggle room when it comes to spending over their bonus pool. Teams that spend 0-5% more than their allotment have to pay a 75% tax on the overage. Anything over 5% can result in the loss of future draft picks.
If a team surpasses their allotment by more than 5% and up to 10%, the team loses a future first-round pick and must pay the 75% tax as well. If a team spends more than 10% and up to 15%, it will lose a first- and second-round pick and pay a 100% tax. If a team spends 15% more than its bonus pool, it loses two first-round picks and must pay a 100% tax, which is the steepest penalty. In 2023, 22 of the 30 teams outspent their pools but no team has ever spent more than 5% in 12 drafts with bonus pools.
Slot values for each pick have increased this year and the Guardians' No. 1 pick is worth $10,570,600, which is the highest ever, surpassing the Pirates' from a year ago.
The Pirates have a bonus pool of $14,000,500. So who could the Pirates be targeting with the No. 9 pick?
FIRST-ROUND TARGETS
The Pirates have three picks on Day 1 of the draft and the first comes at No. 9. The second comes at No. 37 in the first of two competitive balance rounds, which are awarded to all teams that have either one of the 10 smallest markets or 10 smallest revenue pools. The teams receive a pick either at the end of the first round or the end of the second and the groups of teams alternate between the two rounds each year. Last year, the Pirates were awarded a pick after the second round. The Pirates' last pick of Day 1 will take place in the second round at No. 47.
Here are four names that I think the Pirates could target with their first-round pick.
Shortstop/Outfielder Konnor Griffin, Jackson Prep (MS): The 18-year-old from Flowood, Miss., who is committed to Louisiana State, has played on varsity since he was an eighth-grader and reclassified as a sophomore to become draft-eligible this year. Both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America rank him as the 9th-best prospect in this year's draft.
At 6-4, 210 pounds, Griffin has shined as both a pitcher and hitter in high school. He is one of the best prep prospects in the draft and has five-tool potential. Baseball America states, "He’s a bouncy athlete with plus-plus speed, raw power that should become plus, and plus arm strength that could also become a 70-grade tool in the future."
Remember when Cherington said he was going to go after the best athletes and the best players available? Well, Griffin may be among the best. He was Baseball America's 2024 High School Player of the Year after leading his high school to its seventh consecutive 6A state championship while slashing .559/.690/.966 to go with nine home runs, 85 stolen bases and 47 walks. Griffin's only downside is his swing can get long at times due to his size and he's still ironing out some timing issues. He possesses the ability to play short but he could also end up in the outfield.
Outfielder, Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M: Some mock drafts have Montgomery going in the top five but most have him going in the top 10. He is a 6-2, 201-pound switch-hitter that boasted a .322/.454/.733 slash line with 27 home runs and 85 RBIs in one season at Texas A&M. Montgomery only made two appearances on the mound for the Aggies but worked out of the bullpen and was a right fielder for two years at Stanford. With a 70-grade arm, right field may be his best fit at the next level. Some scouts believe he has the athleticism to play center field at the next level as well, which provides even more versatility for whoever picks him.
Outfielder/First Baseman James Tibbs, Florida State: The 21-year-old, who is listed at 6-foot, 201 pounds, is ranked as the No. 12 prospect by MLB Pipeline and No. 14 in Baseball America's Top 500. The lefty did nothing but hit during his collegiate career and put together a career slash line of .338/.462/.685. He hit a career-high 28 home runs this past season and helped the Seminoles reach the semifinals of the College World Series.
He has a clean lefty swing and consistently uses the entire field. He did have strikeout issues during his freshman year but showed improvement the past two years, decreasing his strikeout totals from 64 in 2022 to 37 this past season. His walk totals also increased from 25 during his freshman year to 58 this past season. He will need to improve in the field moving forward, as a 30-field grade and a 40-run grade may contribute to him being a below-average defender at the next level, whether that's at first base or in the outfield.
Shortstop Bryce Rainer, Harvard-Westlake (CA): Rainer is ranked as the 10th-best MLB Draft prospect by both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America, and has shown potential as both a pitcher and a shortstop in high school.
He stands at 6-3 and weighs 195 pounds, giving him the perfect frame to stick to the shortstop position. But, with his athleticism, a 70-arm grade, 55-field grade and a 40-run grade, Rainer could transition to a different position if needed. Baseball America states, "He has a sound approach at the plate with big raw power that should become plus in the future. Scouts marvel at Rainer’s ability to backspin the ball to the opposite field, though he has a history of some swing-and-miss concerns with a swing that can get a bit lengthy at times."
Like Griffin, Rainer is seen as one of the best prep prospects in this year's class. He has legitimate upside and even though he's committed to Texas, he has the opportunity to become the fifth first-rounder in the bonus pool era to come from Harvard-Westlake.
THE REST OF THE DRAFT
The Pirates will have to be wise about their selections. Players with college eligibility remaining and those just coming out of high school, have a little more leverage in terms of signing a deal as they can always go back to school or decide to go to college. Tibbs and Montgomery both have at least one season of eligibility remaining while Rainer and Griffin have both chosen where they will go to school if they decide not to sign a contract.
Here's how the Pirates' picks and slot bonuses work out over the first 10 rounds.
• 1st: No. 9 ($6,216,600)
• Comp. A: No. 37 ($2,511,400)
• 2nd: No. 47 ($1,984,800)
• 3rd: No. 83 ($920,800)
• 4th: No. 112 ($649,700)
• 5th: No. 145 ($471,400)
• 6th: No. 174 ($359,900)
• 7th: No. 204 ($281,500)
• 8th: No. 234 ($224,500)
• 9th: No. 264 ($196100)
• 10th: No. 294 ($183,800)
In rounds 11-20, the Pirates will pick at Nos. 324, 354, 384, 414, 444, 474, 504, 534, 564 and 594.
A year ago, the Pirates signed 20 of their 21 draft selections. The only one who didn't sign was Daniel Cuvet, a third baseman from ESB Academy in Pembroke Pines, Fla. He was one of two high school players the Pirates selected as they focused heavily on 4-year college players and one junior college player.
ORGANIZATION IMPACT
Skenes has already graduated to the major leagues and Davis has bounced back and forth between the minors and majors since being drafted. Johnson still sits at Class A Greensboro and is in the midst of a 12-game hitting streak despite recently being moved to the organization's No. 2 prospect by MLB Pipeline. Bubba Chandler has recently overtaken that No. 1 spot and has been on fire as of late at Class AA Altoona. In his last four starts, he's thrown 23.1 innings, allowed seven hits and only two earned runs while striking out 30 batters.
With a plethora of young pitching talent, both in the major and minor leagues, one would have to think that the Pirates will look to bolster their offensive prospects and could do so by targeting college bats throughout this draft. But as Cherington has said, he's looking to improve his organization by drafting the best players available. So, if a strong pitching prospect becomes available when the Pirates are on the clock, Cherington surely won't be afraid to pull the trigger.
