Why the 2024 season wasn't a true look at Smith's offense
The first season with Arthur Smith as the Steelers' offensive coordinator saw improvement, but perhaps not quite as much as many hoped or expected. The overall uptick in production was minimal, leading some to question if he's the right guy for the job.
However, a deep dive into the data proves that we didn't get a real look at the true Smith offense.
The eye test can deceive. Throughout the season, I really wondered if Smith's offense was fully on display. After he was hired on Feb. 2, 2024, I did a lot of homework on Smith's offense, both what he did as the Titans' offensive coordinator in 2019-2020 and as head coach of the Falcons in 2021-23. I knew Smith was an outside zone/wide zone guy in terms of the run game, and then wanted to use play-action to attack the middle of the field.
I was skeptical of how everything would work because Najee Harris, despite some favorable yards-per-carry outputs, wasn't a great fit for that type of rushing system. We had already seen Harris stagnate in Matt Canada's version of running outside zone. And then after the team signed Russell Wilson, that raised my skepticism to another level because of Wilson's reputation for not throwing to the middle of the field.
Then, a light bulb went off while covering the NFL Draft. When Smith was asked about Kaleb Johnson's fit in the way he likes to run his offense, particularly as an outside zone/wide zone runner, he admitted that he ran things differently in his first season:
"Yeah, I'll pivot. Last year we didn't run as much true outside zone," Smith said. "That was due to some of the familiarity with some of the players we had. You try to adapt to the strengths of the players. You don't want to be rigid. We ran a lot less wide zone, outside zone, whatever you want to call it, than I had the previous couple of years. I think Kaleb can do it at. He ran plenty of gap schemes at Iowa.You can change it up. Again, you don't want to get stale, but he is a really good, whether you are talking wide zone or tight zone, runner."
Before we dive into the reasons why Smith veered from his typical offense, we need to take a look at some history to gain necessary context. Where did Smith get his tendency to run this type of offense?
The first part of this begins with the Packers' head coach, Matt LaFleur, who was the Titans' offensive coordinator one year prior to when Smith was promoted to that same role in 2019. There's no doubt the two hit it off, despite LaFleur's tenure in Tennessee lasting just one year.
“Of course I would have loved to have had him here,” LaFleur told Paul Kuharsky of paulkuharsky.com in January 2019, regarding a desire to make Smith his offensive coordinator after becoming the Packers' head coach. “But I knew there was no way he was going to get out of that building.
“I just have a lot of respect for him. Not only as a football coach, but as a man. I think he is of the highest character. He’s a good family man; he loves his wife and kids; he’s a fun guy to be around. I think he is exactly what you look for when you are trying to hire people.”
LaFleur is a true disciple of the Mike Shanahan school of offense, which influenced his son, Kyle Shanahan, and Rams head coach Sean McVay. LaFleur worked as an offensive assistant with the Texans while Gary Kubiak -- another branch on the Mike Shanahan tree -- was head coach and Kyle Shanahan was offensive coordinator in 2008-09. Then, he served as quarterbacks coach in Washington from 2010-13, while Mike Shanahan was head coach and Kyle Shanahan was offensive coordinator. When Kyle Shanahan went to Atlanta to be the Falcons' offensive coordinator in 2015-2016, LaFleur followed him.
It's important to note while LaFleur was in Washington, McVay also served as an offensive assistant in 2010 then coached the tight ends in 2011-13. When McVay was hired as head coach of the Rams in 2017, he brought LaFleur on as his offensive coordinator.
LaFleur brought all of that time with Shanahan and McVay to Tennessee in 2018, where Smith had been working in a variety of roles for seven years. The one year Smith worked under Lafleur was enough for Mike Vrabel to promote Smith to offensive coordinator. It's a bit of a stretch to call Smith an extended branch of the Shanahan/McVay coaching tree, but there's no doubt he was influenced by LaFleur, who's a direct branch.
The crux of the Shanahan offense combines West Coast offense passing concepts with outside zone/wide zone rushing concepts. It also uses play-action pass concepts that sell outside zone and use bootlegs to throw outside the numbers, but then also dropback concepts that attack the middle of the field. These ideas have been spread all throughout the league:
This is the Steelers executing a version of Shanahan's 'Rider' play-action concept against the Seahawks in 2023. And yes, I chose this particularly clip for a reason since Mason Rudolph was the quarterback. Rider is meant to be read with the vertical route as the first read, especially against middle-field-open coverages such as Cover 2. Either way, the vertical route clears space for the high crossing route, which is the second read. This concept stresses the deep defender in the middle of the field in Cover 3, a middle-field-closed coverage, which the Seahawks are in on this play. Either he carries with the vertical route, leaving space for the high cross, or he steps up to take away the high cross, leaving the middle of the field open for the vertical route. It's a lose-lose situation for the defender.
There are several Shanahan play-action concepts that attack the middle of the field. Rider is one of them, along with other concepts called Blazer, Heat and, as sampled below, Burner:
This is from the Titans' 2020 season, when Smith was their offensive coordinator. Burner is similar to Rider, with the high crossing route as the beneficiary of a deep route that clears space. In this concept, the deep route is a pylon route that begins with an inside stem, then breaks to the outside usually 15 yards downfield. This stresses any deep cornerbacks either on the outer thirds or possibly even when the defense is in Cover 4, like the Broncos are in this play.
This is just a taste of the kind of play-action game Smith has featured in his previous stops. During Smith's three seasons as head coach in Atlanta, the Falcons consistently ranked among the highest in the league in play-action plays that targeted the middle of the field. In three straight seasons, from 2021-23, the Falcons ranked seventh, second and fifth, respectively, according to FantasyPoints.com.
Last season, it was a stark contrast with the Steelers, as they had just 15 play-action dropbacks in which the middle of the field was targeted, the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL. The rest of the numbers last season on play-action passes targeting the middle of the field are even less encouraging:
• Passer rating: 106.0 (15th) • Yards per attempt: 6.27 (31st) • Completion percentage over expected (CPOE): -0.3% (28th) • Average depth of target (ADOT): 5.9 (31st) • Total air yards: 82 (30th) • First-read percentage: 26.7% (32nd) • Time to throw: 3.3 seconds (second-longest) • Pressure rate: 26.7% (13th) • Check-down rate: 40% (32nd)
That's horrific. And, it flies in the face of what Smith did previously. In 2020, Ryan Tannehill had 9.5 yards per attempt (4th) and an average depth of target of 9.7 yards (5th) when throwing out of play-action, according to Sports Info Solutions (SIS). Just those two stats dwarf what the Steelers did with Wilson and Justin Fields at quarterback.
The running game was also very different. According to SIS, the Steelers ran outside zone concepts 131 times last season, sixth-most in the NFL. That sounds like a lot, but just one season prior when Smith was in Atlanta, the Falcons ran it 202 times, the most in the NFL.
Why shift away from that? Because they didn't trust Harris to properly execute those runs on a regular basis. That proved to be true with an average of just 3.1 yards per attempt on outside zone runs.
In the passing game, Smith could not call concepts that could consistently attack the middle of the field. Wilson was notorious for not throwing to the middle of the field prior to arriving in Pittsburgh:
PRO FOOTBALL FOCUS
Russell Wilson heat maps from 2018-2021.
Above are Wilson's final four seasons in Seattle. In 2022-2023, Wilson ranked 15th and 22nd, respectively, in the number of dropbacks that targeted the middle of the field. And the one season he ranked higher, he had a 77.8 passer rating on those dropbacks, which played a role into why he posted a career-worst 84.4 passer rating for the season.
It would have been irresponsible of Smith to try and force his true offense on players that can't execute the system. He can't force Harris to be a better outside zone runner, and he can't force Wilson to throw to the middle of the field.
So, what can change in 2025? Will we get a chance to see what Smith can do? Closer to what he did as offensive coordinator of the Titans? One thing that should provide some optimism is the personnel changes.
Jaylen Warren is a good outside zone/wide zone runner. His one-cut ability and get north in a hurry through cutback lanes make him a good fit for this type of running scheme. I detailed that in a Chalk Talk on our YouTube channel:
Third-round pick Kaleb Johnson is another running back with both ability and experience as an outside zone/wide zone runner. During his final (and monster) season at Iowa, Johnson ran outside zone or mid zone (a slight variation in which the B-gap is the primary attack point) 79% of the time, according to SIS. I have a Chalk Talk video on Johnson, too, which highlights his abilities in this type of rushing system:
Of course, the quarterback is the biggest piece of the puzzle. If Warren and Johnson can help the running game become more consistent, and dare I say explosive, how can the quarterback fully execute the preferred play-action concepts?
Like it or not, Aaron Rodgers is likely going to be the starting quarterback of the Steelers in 2025. If and when he signs, the immediate question is if he can play within Smith's system. Well, the most important factor is Rodgers' final four seasons in Green Bay were under LaFleur, Smith's old buddy from Tennessee.
During those four seasons, 38.5% of Rodgers' attempts targeted the middle of the field, about 7.5% less often than the league average, according to SIS. However, he completed 77.3% of those passes while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt. That's 3.2% and one whole yard higher than the rest of the league. In 2021, Rodgers ranked 15th with 22 attempts to the middle of the field out of play-action, according to FantasyPoints.com. On those attempts, Rodgers posted a ridiculous and league-best 158.1 passer rating. In 2022, he ranked second in the league with 37 attempts to the middle of the field out of play-action, posting a solid 108.4 passer rating.
Rodgers has four seasons of playing under LaFleur. Shanahan play-action concepts are not foreign territory whatsoever.
As for Rudolph, you can see above him successfully executing a Shanahan play-action concept. And last year on a dreadful Titans team, Rudolph ranked ninth in the NFL with a 126.4 passer rating on play-action attempts to the middle of the field. That number far surpasses his overall 80.1 passer rating for the season.
Anyone can cast judgement at any point. That's human nature. But, judging Smith as an offensive coordinator based off his one season in Pittsburgh is doing so without proper context. No, we did not get to see the real Smith offense in 2024. And, based on what personnel we've gone over, the 2025 season should be a different story.
THE ASYLUM
Why the 2024 season wasn't a true look at Smith's offense
The first season with Arthur Smith as the Steelers' offensive coordinator saw improvement, but perhaps not quite as much as many hoped or expected. The overall uptick in production was minimal, leading some to question if he's the right guy for the job.
However, a deep dive into the data proves that we didn't get a real look at the true Smith offense.
The eye test can deceive. Throughout the season, I really wondered if Smith's offense was fully on display. After he was hired on Feb. 2, 2024, I did a lot of homework on Smith's offense, both what he did as the Titans' offensive coordinator in 2019-2020 and as head coach of the Falcons in 2021-23. I knew Smith was an outside zone/wide zone guy in terms of the run game, and then wanted to use play-action to attack the middle of the field.
I was skeptical of how everything would work because Najee Harris, despite some favorable yards-per-carry outputs, wasn't a great fit for that type of rushing system. We had already seen Harris stagnate in Matt Canada's version of running outside zone. And then after the team signed Russell Wilson, that raised my skepticism to another level because of Wilson's reputation for not throwing to the middle of the field.
Then, a light bulb went off while covering the NFL Draft. When Smith was asked about Kaleb Johnson's fit in the way he likes to run his offense, particularly as an outside zone/wide zone runner, he admitted that he ran things differently in his first season:
"Yeah, I'll pivot. Last year we didn't run as much true outside zone," Smith said. "That was due to some of the familiarity with some of the players we had. You try to adapt to the strengths of the players. You don't want to be rigid. We ran a lot less wide zone, outside zone, whatever you want to call it, than I had the previous couple of years. I think Kaleb can do it at. He ran plenty of gap schemes at Iowa.You can change it up. Again, you don't want to get stale, but he is a really good, whether you are talking wide zone or tight zone, runner."
Before we dive into the reasons why Smith veered from his typical offense, we need to take a look at some history to gain necessary context. Where did Smith get his tendency to run this type of offense?
The first part of this begins with the Packers' head coach, Matt LaFleur, who was the Titans' offensive coordinator one year prior to when Smith was promoted to that same role in 2019. There's no doubt the two hit it off, despite LaFleur's tenure in Tennessee lasting just one year.
“Of course I would have loved to have had him here,” LaFleur told Paul Kuharsky of paulkuharsky.com in January 2019, regarding a desire to make Smith his offensive coordinator after becoming the Packers' head coach. “But I knew there was no way he was going to get out of that building.
“I just have a lot of respect for him. Not only as a football coach, but as a man. I think he is of the highest character. He’s a good family man; he loves his wife and kids; he’s a fun guy to be around. I think he is exactly what you look for when you are trying to hire people.”
LaFleur is a true disciple of the Mike Shanahan school of offense, which influenced his son, Kyle Shanahan, and Rams head coach Sean McVay. LaFleur worked as an offensive assistant with the Texans while Gary Kubiak -- another branch on the Mike Shanahan tree -- was head coach and Kyle Shanahan was offensive coordinator in 2008-09. Then, he served as quarterbacks coach in Washington from 2010-13, while Mike Shanahan was head coach and Kyle Shanahan was offensive coordinator. When Kyle Shanahan went to Atlanta to be the Falcons' offensive coordinator in 2015-2016, LaFleur followed him.
It's important to note while LaFleur was in Washington, McVay also served as an offensive assistant in 2010 then coached the tight ends in 2011-13. When McVay was hired as head coach of the Rams in 2017, he brought LaFleur on as his offensive coordinator.
LaFleur brought all of that time with Shanahan and McVay to Tennessee in 2018, where Smith had been working in a variety of roles for seven years. The one year Smith worked under Lafleur was enough for Mike Vrabel to promote Smith to offensive coordinator. It's a bit of a stretch to call Smith an extended branch of the Shanahan/McVay coaching tree, but there's no doubt he was influenced by LaFleur, who's a direct branch.
The crux of the Shanahan offense combines West Coast offense passing concepts with outside zone/wide zone rushing concepts. It also uses play-action pass concepts that sell outside zone and use bootlegs to throw outside the numbers, but then also dropback concepts that attack the middle of the field. These ideas have been spread all throughout the league:
This is the Steelers executing a version of Shanahan's 'Rider' play-action concept against the Seahawks in 2023. And yes, I chose this particularly clip for a reason since Mason Rudolph was the quarterback. Rider is meant to be read with the vertical route as the first read, especially against middle-field-open coverages such as Cover 2. Either way, the vertical route clears space for the high crossing route, which is the second read. This concept stresses the deep defender in the middle of the field in Cover 3, a middle-field-closed coverage, which the Seahawks are in on this play. Either he carries with the vertical route, leaving space for the high cross, or he steps up to take away the high cross, leaving the middle of the field open for the vertical route. It's a lose-lose situation for the defender.
There are several Shanahan play-action concepts that attack the middle of the field. Rider is one of them, along with other concepts called Blazer, Heat and, as sampled below, Burner:
This is from the Titans' 2020 season, when Smith was their offensive coordinator. Burner is similar to Rider, with the high crossing route as the beneficiary of a deep route that clears space. In this concept, the deep route is a pylon route that begins with an inside stem, then breaks to the outside usually 15 yards downfield. This stresses any deep cornerbacks either on the outer thirds or possibly even when the defense is in Cover 4, like the Broncos are in this play.
This is just a taste of the kind of play-action game Smith has featured in his previous stops. During Smith's three seasons as head coach in Atlanta, the Falcons consistently ranked among the highest in the league in play-action plays that targeted the middle of the field. In three straight seasons, from 2021-23, the Falcons ranked seventh, second and fifth, respectively, according to FantasyPoints.com.
Last season, it was a stark contrast with the Steelers, as they had just 15 play-action dropbacks in which the middle of the field was targeted, the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL. The rest of the numbers last season on play-action passes targeting the middle of the field are even less encouraging:
• Passer rating: 106.0 (15th)
• Yards per attempt: 6.27 (31st)
• Completion percentage over expected (CPOE): -0.3% (28th)
• Average depth of target (ADOT): 5.9 (31st)
• Total air yards: 82 (30th)
• First-read percentage: 26.7% (32nd)
• Time to throw: 3.3 seconds (second-longest)
• Pressure rate: 26.7% (13th)
• Check-down rate: 40% (32nd)
That's horrific. And, it flies in the face of what Smith did previously. In 2020, Ryan Tannehill had 9.5 yards per attempt (4th) and an average depth of target of 9.7 yards (5th) when throwing out of play-action, according to Sports Info Solutions (SIS). Just those two stats dwarf what the Steelers did with Wilson and Justin Fields at quarterback.
The running game was also very different. According to SIS, the Steelers ran outside zone concepts 131 times last season, sixth-most in the NFL. That sounds like a lot, but just one season prior when Smith was in Atlanta, the Falcons ran it 202 times, the most in the NFL.
Why shift away from that? Because they didn't trust Harris to properly execute those runs on a regular basis. That proved to be true with an average of just 3.1 yards per attempt on outside zone runs.
In the passing game, Smith could not call concepts that could consistently attack the middle of the field. Wilson was notorious for not throwing to the middle of the field prior to arriving in Pittsburgh:
PRO FOOTBALL FOCUS
Russell Wilson heat maps from 2018-2021.
Above are Wilson's final four seasons in Seattle. In 2022-2023, Wilson ranked 15th and 22nd, respectively, in the number of dropbacks that targeted the middle of the field. And the one season he ranked higher, he had a 77.8 passer rating on those dropbacks, which played a role into why he posted a career-worst 84.4 passer rating for the season.
It would have been irresponsible of Smith to try and force his true offense on players that can't execute the system. He can't force Harris to be a better outside zone runner, and he can't force Wilson to throw to the middle of the field.
So, what can change in 2025? Will we get a chance to see what Smith can do? Closer to what he did as offensive coordinator of the Titans? One thing that should provide some optimism is the personnel changes.
Jaylen Warren is a good outside zone/wide zone runner. His one-cut ability and get north in a hurry through cutback lanes make him a good fit for this type of running scheme. I detailed that in a Chalk Talk on our YouTube channel:
Third-round pick Kaleb Johnson is another running back with both ability and experience as an outside zone/wide zone runner. During his final (and monster) season at Iowa, Johnson ran outside zone or mid zone (a slight variation in which the B-gap is the primary attack point) 79% of the time, according to SIS. I have a Chalk Talk video on Johnson, too, which highlights his abilities in this type of rushing system:
Of course, the quarterback is the biggest piece of the puzzle. If Warren and Johnson can help the running game become more consistent, and dare I say explosive, how can the quarterback fully execute the preferred play-action concepts?
Like it or not, Aaron Rodgers is likely going to be the starting quarterback of the Steelers in 2025. If and when he signs, the immediate question is if he can play within Smith's system. Well, the most important factor is Rodgers' final four seasons in Green Bay were under LaFleur, Smith's old buddy from Tennessee.
During those four seasons, 38.5% of Rodgers' attempts targeted the middle of the field, about 7.5% less often than the league average, according to SIS. However, he completed 77.3% of those passes while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt. That's 3.2% and one whole yard higher than the rest of the league. In 2021, Rodgers ranked 15th with 22 attempts to the middle of the field out of play-action, according to FantasyPoints.com. On those attempts, Rodgers posted a ridiculous and league-best 158.1 passer rating. In 2022, he ranked second in the league with 37 attempts to the middle of the field out of play-action, posting a solid 108.4 passer rating.
Rodgers has four seasons of playing under LaFleur. Shanahan play-action concepts are not foreign territory whatsoever.
As for Rudolph, you can see above him successfully executing a Shanahan play-action concept. And last year on a dreadful Titans team, Rudolph ranked ninth in the NFL with a 126.4 passer rating on play-action attempts to the middle of the field. That number far surpasses his overall 80.1 passer rating for the season.
Anyone can cast judgement at any point. That's human nature. But, judging Smith as an offensive coordinator based off his one season in Pittsburgh is doing so without proper context. No, we did not get to see the real Smith offense in 2024. And, based on what personnel we've gone over, the 2025 season should be a different story.
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