The signing of Aaron Rodgers has caused quite a stir in the Steelers' fan base. Some people love it. Some aren't overly thrilled, but believe it provides the best chance to compete this season. And some down right hate it.
One thing that can help put some things into perspective is a look at the only true objective information: Numbers.
The answer to 2+2 is always 4. There's never an argument or narrative that can change that. So, an extensive look at Rodgers' numbers from last season should help paint a more accurate picture of the quarterback the Steelers are getting in 2025.
Now, statistics can be skewed. So, I will also provide necessary context to better explain the numbers through a proper lens.
• ESPN QBR: 48.0 (28th) • EPA/play: 0.057 (19th) • EPA/dropback: -0.06 (T-22nd) • Passing success rate: 44.3% (T-24th) • Completion percentage over expected (CPOE): -2.6% (30th) • Adjusted yards per attempt: 6.78 (22nd) • Average air yards: 6.8 (28th) • Average time to throw: 2.69 seconds (T-5th) • Average depth of target (ADOT): 7.1 yards (T-29th) • Deep ball percentage: 7.4% (31st) • PFF Big-time throw percentage: 4.2% (T-11th) • PFF Turnover worth play rate: 1.8% (4th-best) • Pressure rate: 26.4% (3rd-lowest) • Pressure rate over expectation: -1.49% (12th-best) • Blitz rate: 25% (28th) • Play-action percentage: 23.6% (17th) • Target's average separation: 3.7 yards (T-9th best) • Drop rate: 5.7% (6th-highest) • Tight-window percentage: 14% (22nd) • Check-down rate: 9.1%
PASSING SPLITS
Under Pressure:
• Passer rating: 95.4 (3rd) • Touchdowns: 9 (T-5th) • Interceptions: 1 (T-2nd least) • EPA/dropback: -0.28 (T-8th) • Air yards per attempt: 8.7 (T-34th) • Deep ball percentage: 12.3% (24th) • Average time to throw: 3.65 seconds (30th) • Blitz rate: 30.8% (26th) • Play-action percentage: 21.3% (17th) • Drop rate: 5.3% (7th-highest)
No Pressure:
• Passer rating: 89.2 (27th) • Touchdowns: 19 (T-8th) • Interceptions: 10 (2nd-most) • EPA/dropback: 0.01 (T-34th) • Air yards per attempt: 6.3 (T-27th) • Deep ball percentage: 6.1% (32nd) • Average time to throw: 2.43 seconds (T-3rd) • Blitz rate: 22.9% (26th) • Play-action percentage: 24.4% (T-16th) • Drop rate: 5.7% (8th-highest)
Against Blitz:
• Passer rating: 92.5 (19th) • Touchdowns: 12 (T-7th) • Interceptions: 3 (T-10th most) • EPA/dropback: -0.27 (T-34th) • Air yards per attempt: 6.8 (T-31st) • Deep ball percentage: 6.8% (T-33rd) • Average time to throw: 2.54 seconds (T-6th) • Pressure rate: 32.5% (33rd) • Play-action percentage: 30.6% (19th) • Drop rate: 4.1% (19th)
No Blitz:
• Passer rating: 89.9 (21st) • Touchdowns: 16 (T-9th) • Interceptions: 8 (T-9th most) • EPA/dropback: 0.00 (T-18th) • Air yards per attempt: 6.7 (T-32nd) • Deep ball percentage: 7.5% (T-28th) • Average time to throw: 2.74 seconds (T-6th) • Pressure rate: 24.4% (32nd) • Play-action percentage: 21.3% (17th) • Drop rate: 6.3% (3rd-highest)
Play-action:
• Passer rating: 89.7 (32nd) • Touchdowns: 6 (T-11th) • Interceptions: 1 (T-6th least) • EPA/dropback: 0.02 (T-23rd) • Air yards per attempt: 5.3 (36th) • Deep ball percentage: 6.1% (33rd) • Average time to throw: 3.21 seconds (T-22nd) • Blitz rate: 32.5% (28th) • Pressure rate: 23.8% (31st) • Drop rate: 3.7% (15th)
No Play-action:
• Passer rating: 90.8 (18th) • Touchdowns: 22 (T-6th) • Interceptions: 10 (T-4th most) • EPA/dropback: -.0.09 (T-22nd) • Air yards per attempt: 7.2 (T-25th) • Deep ball percentage: 7.8% (T-29th) • Average time to throw: 2.51 seconds (3rd) • Blitz rate: 22.7% (26th) • Pressure rate: 27.2% (32nd) • Drop rate: 6.5% (6th-highest)
Targeting middle of field:
• Passer rating: 109.5 (8th) • Touchdowns: 10 (T-3rd) • Interceptions: 3 (T-12th most) • Deep ball percentage: 9.6% (13th) • Average time to throw: 2.64 seconds (T-15th) • ADOT: 8.8 yards (19th) • Pressure rate: 24.8% (13th) • Drop rate: 7.2% (7th-highest)
Targeting outside numbers:
• Passer rating: 85.4 (T-22nd) • Touchdowns: 18 (T-11th) • Interceptions: 8 (T-9th most) • Deep ball percentage: 9.8% (T-23rd) • Average time to throw: 2.46 (T-9th) • ADOT: 6.6 yards (24th) • Pressure rate: 21.8% (22nd) • Drop rate: 5.2% (8th-highest)
Stats pulled from Pro-Football Reference, NFL Next Gen Stats, rbsdm.com, Pro Football Focus and FantasyPoints.com.
NECESSARY CONTEXT
These are raw numbers. No context whatsoever. There are some impressive figures, but also some very alarming stats, as well. That's probably a pretty good indication that Rodgers isn't a great quarterback anymore, but he's also not terrible, either.
There a couple pieces of context that are necessary. First, the Jets also had a horrible static offense. They ranked 28th in the NFL in using motion prior to the snap. Very little imagination from Nathaniel Hackett. In the Jets film I've watched from last season, it's easy to see how much Hackett needed someone like Matt LaFleur over him in Green Bay.
Another piece of context that's absolutely noteworthy is the Jets' horrific run game. Not only did they hardly run the ball -- only the Raiders, Bengals and Browns ran less often -- they were terrible at it, mostly because of an awful offensive line. They ranked 27th in EPA/rush, had the 10th-highest stuff percentage, the 20th-ranked success rate and ranked 25th with 1.05 yards per attempt before contact.
That offensive line play doesn't show up in Rodgers' stats because of how quickly he got rid of the ball last season. Digging a little deeper, when Rodgers held onto the ball for 2.5 to 2.6 seconds, he was under pressure 31.8% of the time, which was 6th-highest among all quarterback who played in at least 10 games.
In the little bit of film I've watched of Rodgers so far, including the entire Jets vs. Vikings game in London, you could see the toll the constant pressure had on Rodgers. Even plays he wasn't under pressure, he got trigger happy, just trying to get the ball out and avoid getting hit. It's hard to play quarterback that way.
Of course, that's a significant risk in Pittsburgh. The Steelers' offensive line is young and has to play at a higher level, especially in pass protection. There are ways to help the situation, which is where Arthur Smith will have to be creative.
One thing is certainly true: The Steelers will not be asking Rodgers to throw the ball nearly as often as he did with the Jets. The Steelers are a run-first team. That's not going to change with Rodgers now under contract.
Should the Steelers become a more effective running team, Rodgers should be more freed up to just execute the offense and not try and be Superman like the Jets wanted him to be.
THE ASYLUM
Analysis: Rodgers by the numbers
The signing of Aaron Rodgers has caused quite a stir in the Steelers' fan base. Some people love it. Some aren't overly thrilled, but believe it provides the best chance to compete this season. And some down right hate it.
One thing that can help put some things into perspective is a look at the only true objective information: Numbers.
The answer to 2+2 is always 4. There's never an argument or narrative that can change that. So, an extensive look at Rodgers' numbers from last season should help paint a more accurate picture of the quarterback the Steelers are getting in 2025.
Now, statistics can be skewed. So, I will also provide necessary context to better explain the numbers through a proper lens.
TRADITIONAL STATS
• Completions: 368 (8th)
• Pass attempts: 584 (2nd)
• Completion percentage: 63% (30th)
• Passing yards: 3,897 (8th)
• Touchdowns: 28 (T-7th)
• Touchdown percentage: 4.8% (T-12th)
• Interceptions: 11 (T-12th most)
• Interception percentage: 1.9% (T-13th best)
• Yards per attempt: 6.7 (T-27th)
• Yards per game: 229.2 (12th)
• Passer rating: 90.5 (T-20th)
• Sacks: 40 (T-9th most)
ADVANCED METRICS
• ESPN QBR: 48.0 (28th)
• EPA/play: 0.057 (19th)
• EPA/dropback: -0.06 (T-22nd)
• Passing success rate: 44.3% (T-24th)
• Completion percentage over expected (CPOE): -2.6% (30th)
• Adjusted yards per attempt: 6.78 (22nd)
• Average air yards: 6.8 (28th)
• Average time to throw: 2.69 seconds (T-5th)
• Average depth of target (ADOT): 7.1 yards (T-29th)
• Deep ball percentage: 7.4% (31st)
• PFF Big-time throw percentage: 4.2% (T-11th)
• PFF Turnover worth play rate: 1.8% (4th-best)
• Pressure rate: 26.4% (3rd-lowest)
• Pressure rate over expectation: -1.49% (12th-best)
• Blitz rate: 25% (28th)
• Play-action percentage: 23.6% (17th)
• Target's average separation: 3.7 yards (T-9th best)
• Drop rate: 5.7% (6th-highest)
• Tight-window percentage: 14% (22nd)
• Check-down rate: 9.1%
PASSING SPLITS
Under Pressure:
• Passer rating: 95.4 (3rd)
• Touchdowns: 9 (T-5th)
• Interceptions: 1 (T-2nd least)
• EPA/dropback: -0.28 (T-8th)
• Air yards per attempt: 8.7 (T-34th)
• Deep ball percentage: 12.3% (24th)
• Average time to throw: 3.65 seconds (30th)
• Blitz rate: 30.8% (26th)
• Play-action percentage: 21.3% (17th)
• Drop rate: 5.3% (7th-highest)
No Pressure:
• Passer rating: 89.2 (27th)
• Touchdowns: 19 (T-8th)
• Interceptions: 10 (2nd-most)
• EPA/dropback: 0.01 (T-34th)
• Air yards per attempt: 6.3 (T-27th)
• Deep ball percentage: 6.1% (32nd)
• Average time to throw: 2.43 seconds (T-3rd)
• Blitz rate: 22.9% (26th)
• Play-action percentage: 24.4% (T-16th)
• Drop rate: 5.7% (8th-highest)
Against Blitz:
• Passer rating: 92.5 (19th)
• Touchdowns: 12 (T-7th)
• Interceptions: 3 (T-10th most)
• EPA/dropback: -0.27 (T-34th)
• Air yards per attempt: 6.8 (T-31st)
• Deep ball percentage: 6.8% (T-33rd)
• Average time to throw: 2.54 seconds (T-6th)
• Pressure rate: 32.5% (33rd)
• Play-action percentage: 30.6% (19th)
• Drop rate: 4.1% (19th)
No Blitz:
• Passer rating: 89.9 (21st)
• Touchdowns: 16 (T-9th)
• Interceptions: 8 (T-9th most)
• EPA/dropback: 0.00 (T-18th)
• Air yards per attempt: 6.7 (T-32nd)
• Deep ball percentage: 7.5% (T-28th)
• Average time to throw: 2.74 seconds (T-6th)
• Pressure rate: 24.4% (32nd)
• Play-action percentage: 21.3% (17th)
• Drop rate: 6.3% (3rd-highest)
Play-action:
• Passer rating: 89.7 (32nd)
• Touchdowns: 6 (T-11th)
• Interceptions: 1 (T-6th least)
• EPA/dropback: 0.02 (T-23rd)
• Air yards per attempt: 5.3 (36th)
• Deep ball percentage: 6.1% (33rd)
• Average time to throw: 3.21 seconds (T-22nd)
• Blitz rate: 32.5% (28th)
• Pressure rate: 23.8% (31st)
• Drop rate: 3.7% (15th)
No Play-action:
• Passer rating: 90.8 (18th)
• Touchdowns: 22 (T-6th)
• Interceptions: 10 (T-4th most)
• EPA/dropback: -.0.09 (T-22nd)
• Air yards per attempt: 7.2 (T-25th)
• Deep ball percentage: 7.8% (T-29th)
• Average time to throw: 2.51 seconds (3rd)
• Blitz rate: 22.7% (26th)
• Pressure rate: 27.2% (32nd)
• Drop rate: 6.5% (6th-highest)
Targeting middle of field:
• Passer rating: 109.5 (8th)
• Touchdowns: 10 (T-3rd)
• Interceptions: 3 (T-12th most)
• Deep ball percentage: 9.6% (13th)
• Average time to throw: 2.64 seconds (T-15th)
• ADOT: 8.8 yards (19th)
• Pressure rate: 24.8% (13th)
• Drop rate: 7.2% (7th-highest)
Targeting outside numbers:
• Passer rating: 85.4 (T-22nd)
• Touchdowns: 18 (T-11th)
• Interceptions: 8 (T-9th most)
• Deep ball percentage: 9.8% (T-23rd)
• Average time to throw: 2.46 (T-9th)
• ADOT: 6.6 yards (24th)
• Pressure rate: 21.8% (22nd)
• Drop rate: 5.2% (8th-highest)
Stats pulled from Pro-Football Reference, NFL Next Gen Stats, rbsdm.com, Pro Football Focus and FantasyPoints.com.
NECESSARY CONTEXT
These are raw numbers. No context whatsoever. There are some impressive figures, but also some very alarming stats, as well. That's probably a pretty good indication that Rodgers isn't a great quarterback anymore, but he's also not terrible, either.
There a couple pieces of context that are necessary. First, the Jets also had a horrible static offense. They ranked 28th in the NFL in using motion prior to the snap. Very little imagination from Nathaniel Hackett. In the Jets film I've watched from last season, it's easy to see how much Hackett needed someone like Matt LaFleur over him in Green Bay.
Another piece of context that's absolutely noteworthy is the Jets' horrific run game. Not only did they hardly run the ball -- only the Raiders, Bengals and Browns ran less often -- they were terrible at it, mostly because of an awful offensive line. They ranked 27th in EPA/rush, had the 10th-highest stuff percentage, the 20th-ranked success rate and ranked 25th with 1.05 yards per attempt before contact.
That offensive line play doesn't show up in Rodgers' stats because of how quickly he got rid of the ball last season. Digging a little deeper, when Rodgers held onto the ball for 2.5 to 2.6 seconds, he was under pressure 31.8% of the time, which was 6th-highest among all quarterback who played in at least 10 games.
In the little bit of film I've watched of Rodgers so far, including the entire Jets vs. Vikings game in London, you could see the toll the constant pressure had on Rodgers. Even plays he wasn't under pressure, he got trigger happy, just trying to get the ball out and avoid getting hit. It's hard to play quarterback that way.
Of course, that's a significant risk in Pittsburgh. The Steelers' offensive line is young and has to play at a higher level, especially in pass protection. There are ways to help the situation, which is where Arthur Smith will have to be creative.
One thing is certainly true: The Steelers will not be asking Rodgers to throw the ball nearly as often as he did with the Jets. The Steelers are a run-first team. That's not going to change with Rodgers now under contract.
Should the Steelers become a more effective running team, Rodgers should be more freed up to just execute the offense and not try and be Superman like the Jets wanted him to be.
Want to participate in our comments?
Want an ad-free experience?
Become a member, and enjoy premium benefits!
We’d love to have you!