The Pirates' spring training is set to open Wednesday in Bradenton, Fla., with the first formal workout for pitchers and catchers.
To build up toward the start of another season, we will be projecting the potential opening day lineup, rotation and bullpen. Today, we're looking at the pitching side. The Pirates went into this offseason looking to get more whiffs out of the bullpen and improve the rotation. Did they accomplish that?
THE OPENING DAY ROTATION
1. MITCH KELLER
Keller rediscovered his mojo and his fastball velocity last winter, and after a stumble out of the gate, became the Pirates' best starter down the stretch. He's bringing back the gyro slider (closer to a cutter) he had his rookie year to go along with last year's new offerings, the sinker and the sweeping slider. With a wide range pitches to work with, he now has the luxury of focusing in on a couple during a start based on matchups or feel. After years of ups and downs, he took a big step forward last season, and Oscar Marin is expecting another in 2023.
2. ROANSY CONTERAS
Contreras has the stuff to be a front-end of the rotation starter. There were some growing pains last year and the fastball velocity tailed off at the end of the year, though the latter is attributed to his jump in innings last year. He's going to have to pitch more innings in 2023, ideally without a shutdown like last year.
3. RICH HILL
Hill gives the Pirates' rotation a lefty, and more importantly, a veteran a young group can turn to. He's more than just a 42-year-old junkballer at this stage of his career. He's a mentor, too.
4. JT BRUBAKER
I've seen projections on social media leaving Brubaker out of the opening day rotation. Really, the guy who started opening day last year and has made more starts than anyone these last two years is getting sent to the bullpen? Doubtful. He's a good backend of the rotation pitcher who showed some growth last year. With that said, it's probably better for both him and the team that he isn't going to be the opening day starter this year.
5. VINCE VELASQUEZ
This year's reclamation project, Velasquez has spent his offseason tweaking his mechanics, just like José Quintana did last year. He's going to get a chance to start, but if he doesn't do well, the Pirates have a handful of young pitchers waiting in the minors. If he does click, the Pirates will be able to market themselves to a wider range of free agent pitchers who are looking to bounce back.
THE BULLPEN
LONG RELIEF JOHAN OVIEDO
The Pirates acquired Oviedo from the Cardinals last trade deadline to be a starter, and he had a pretty good in September in that role. However, the Pirates wanted to add depth to the rotation, and he looks like the odd man out at the moment. Don't rule out the chances the Pirates start with a six-man rotation, but also don't rule out that he could be optioned to keep a more traditional reliever who doesn't have minor-league options. Oviedo will get a chance to start in 2023. The only question is when.
MIDDLE RELIEF CHASE DE JONG
De Jong was a pleasant surprise last year and emerged as one of the Pirates' top bullpen options. He's probably best deployed as a multi-inning reliever, but he got some looks as a leverage guy last year to mixed results. This is the first offseason in years where he's had some job security. Let's see how he took advantage of that.
MIDDLE RELIEF WIL CROWE
Crowe had a 3.12 ERA through August 28 and just hit a wall over his final nine outings, taking three losses and allowing 14 earned runs over 9 2/3 innings. Was that just a slump, did he run out of gas in his first year in the bullpen or did the pressure of being used in a leverage role get to him? I'm inclined to believe it was one of the first two options, but we're not going to know unless he gets that chance to pitch those high leverage situations again.
MIDDLE RELIEF JOSE HERNANDEZ
A Rule 5 pick from the Dodgers, Hernandez has to make the opening day team or be let go. There are a couple non-roster invites who could swoop into this spot if Hernandez doesn't earn the job, like Caleb Smith, Angel Perdomo and Nathan Webb, to name a few. The report on Hernandez is he has an upper-90s fastball that is major-league ready. Can he continue to develop his breaking ball enough to keep his roster spot?
MIDDLE RELIEF ROBERT STEPHENSON
A waiver claim late last year, Stephenson lost his feel for his fastball but still posted solid results with the Pirates (3.38 ERA over 13 1/3 innings) by just spamming his slider. He went into the offseason looking to get his fastball back on track. If he did, he could be a seventh or eighth inning option.
LEFTY RELIEVER JARLIN GARCIA
The big addition to the bullpen this winter, García posted a 1.91 ERA through his first 30 outings with the Giants last year and a 5.63 ERA over his final 28 appearances. There's strong evidence that he was out-pitching his peripherals in the first half of last year, but that slump was enough for the Giants to non-tender him, even after a solid 2021 campaign. So which García are the Pirates getting, and can he get his fastball back on track? He's set to pitch for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic next month.
SET-UP MAN COLIN HOLDERMAN
Wow, did I hear a lot about Holderman this winter from various levels of people in the organization. There's a lot of internal buzz about this guy. He reevaluated his mechanics this offseason to try to stay healthy. If he does that, he has the inside track to the setup job (or at least the closest thing Derek Shelton will ever deploy as a setup man).
CLOSER DAVID BEDNAR
Only a handful of bullpens have the luxury of turning the ball over to an All-Star closer in the ninth. When Bednar is healthy, he is a top five closer in the game. Can he stay healthy for a full season?
OTHER PLAYERS ON THE 40 MAN ROSTER
RHP MIKE BURROWS
Burrows' secondary offerings are stronger than his fastball, but the three pitches can work together when he's clicking. He'll get a call up to the majors at some point this season, most likely before Quinn Priester since he's already on the roster and has more Class AAA experience.
RHP YERRY DE LOS SANTOS
A longtime member of the farm system, De Los Santos broke into the majors last year and looked quite good at times. He allowed as many earned runs in two ugly outings in August (seven) as he did in his other 24 outings, and he was shelved for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury right after that slump. He has minor-league options remaining, so don't be surprised if the Pirates use them this year.
RHP MAX KRANICK
Kranick is still recovering from Tommy John surgery and will be placed on the 60-day injured list to open up the roster spot sooner rather than later. Depending on where he is in his rehab, he has a chance of pitching before the year is through.
RHP DAURI MORETA
He has an intriguing fastball, assuming of course he can improve its location:
With that said, I don't think this is where sinkers are supposed to go https://t.co/W2vejhr2Kt pic.twitter.com/1j3nknfVmg
— Alex Stumpf (@AlexJStumpf) November 19, 2022
Acquired from the Reds for Kevin Newman, Moreta is most likely going to bounce between the majors and minors this year.
RHP LUIS ORTIZ
Last season's breakout pitcher, Ortiz went from a Class Low-A pitcher to a top 100 prospect in just over a year's time. He's still raw and relies almost exclusively on his fastball-slider combo, but he just might get away with that because the fastball is so loud. Put him in Indianapolis to start the year with the other noteworthy prospects.
RHP YOHAN RAMIREZ
Ramirez has a couple of above average offerings, but he bounced around three different teams last year due to his lack of control. He has an option year remaining, so the Pirates don't necessarily have to cut ties if he fails to make the club.
RHP DUANE UNDERWOOD JR
Underwood needs to make the opening day team or be placed on waivers. He had good batted ball peripherals last year and a 2.92 FIP, but he's posted very average ERAs the last two seasons. The Pirates have some other middle relief options, but Underwood could still be another. And don't knock the innings he can pitch. Those frames have really helped the staff.
